LA Clippers: Better Without Blake Griffin?

The LA Clippers haven’t had much of a problem being without Blake Griffin since Christmas Day.

The short of it — the Clippers have gone 9-0 without arguably the most important piece of their “Big-3” while actually posting a better net points differential (up to +22.2 from +11.6) than they did with Griffin in the lineup.

In a Clippers season already ripe with questions, this latest one is perhaps the most troubling of all — are the Clippers really a better team without Griffin?

What does that mean for the playoffs and the future?

The answer isn’t quiet what it seems.

With Griffin injured, Doc Rivers has made the decision to go small — moving Luc Mbah a Moute from starting small forward to starting power forward, thereby opening up the starting 3 slot for Paul Pierce.

The difference, though subtle on the surface, has had massive consequences to the play style of the Clippers.

What’s impressive about this is that the squad has actually been able to improve their 3-point shooting percentage (42.2% to 43.5%) despite the increase in shot attempts from players in unfamiliar roles.

So without Griffin, the Clippers have chosen to play a more 3-point dependent style, which has been made possible by (or perhaps necessitated by depending on your views) the addition of another 3-point shooter in the starting lineup and the subtraction of the more traditional, less “spacing-friendly” Griffin.

As a result of the swap, the offense is scoring better than ever.

Other noteworthy stats from this Clippers win-streak include:

• Starter’s turnovers per 100 possessions: down from 14.1 to 11.3.
• Starter’s Rebound Percentage: down very slightly from 54.3% to 52.4% of available opportunities, despite a large drop off in player size.

However, even though the stats seem impressive on the surface, there’s reason to be cautious.

Nine games is a small sample size for anything, let alone for determining the effectiveness of an entirely new starting five, with a completely different offensive emphasis.

The Clippers have also only faced one team above .500 (Miami Heat) during this 9 game winning streak, which means that some or even most of the improvements could just be statistical white-noise generated by a lighter than average schedule.

Advanced statistics are important to basketball analysis, but the context within which they exist is always crucial to consider.

In this case, that means we can use a bit of common sense to say — of course the Clippers are a better team with Blake Griffin.

He’s one of the most versatile power forwards in the league and he creates nightly match-up problems for just about every opponent the Clippers’ face.

Even though the numbers for this short stretch of games might say otherwise, it’s unrealistic to expect the likes of senior citizen Paul Pierce and Wesley Johnson to continue to play at a high enough level to sustain a +22.2 points differential.

At the very least, teams would expose the hell out of them come playoff time when every player is more thoroughly scouted.

Still, even if the Clippers haven’t stumbled upon a surprise lineup of the future, their current win-streak could have important implications to this year’s playoff run.

It’s no secret around the association that the Clipper’s bench has been a constant weak-spot.

While it’s true that CP3, Blake, and DJ are one of the leagues most imposing “Big-3’s”, the team’s bench often gives up huge scoring runs to opponents which can render the handiwork of the starters completely useless.

The problem could be alleviated — at least in part — if coach Doc Rivers was willing to stagger the starter’s minutes, in order to blanket each game in a more equal scoring output.

However, despite witnessing teams like the Spurs and Warriors dominate, in part thanks to the staggering of their best player’s minutes, Rivers has proven unwilling to budge on his rotations.

This winning streak, however, might be just what the Doc’ ordered to help change that.

(Sorry, that hurt me too.)

With the injury to Blake, Rivers has essentially been forced to see how effective a starting unit without Griffin can be. Yes, the wins have come against mostly sub .500 teams, but the margin of victory has been so great, Doc would be a fool not to see value in this lineup.  Assuming Rivers isn’t a fool and he becomes willing to play Blake with the bench sometimes, the result would be a more sustained offense that scores equally well over an entire 48 minute game, instead of the current start-and-stop offense that’s heavily dependent upon whether or not the team’s big 3 is playing.

As mentioned previously, another valuable nugget to be gleaned form this winning streak has been the Clippers successful (albeit forced) adaptation of a more 3-point dependent style. When Griffin returns to the starting lineup in the next week or so, that newfound strategy doesn’t have to disappear forever. Instead, the play calls and orders of preference within offensive sets that the team has been using in Griffin’s absence, can be implemented strategically to help the Clippers keep opposing defenses on their toes, or even to just matchup better with opponents that call for that style of play.

Heck, if Doc Rivers really is willing to change up his rotations, he could even decide to play DeAndre Jordan with bench units sometimes — just to put Griffin at the 5 and turn the Clippers into a lesser version of the small-ball nightmare that the Warriors become when they play Draymond Green at center.

At the end of the day the main takeaway is that this latest Clippers win-streak has been a pleasant surprise from a team that’s had a rough start to its season.

However, as soon as Griffin is healthy enough to return to the starting lineup, that’s exactly where he’ll be, and rightfully so.

Next: How The Lakers Should Handle DeMar DeRozan

That doesn’t mean all of the progress of the last few weeks needs to be thrown away though, as there are plenty of positives that can be taken away from this improved stretch of play.