UCLA and the NBA Draft

Yesterday, freshman Kevin Love and sophomore Russel Westbrook declared their intentions to enter the NBA draft. Both have been projected to go anywhere from the lottery to the late first round. It has been widely rumored that juniors Darren Collison and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute will do the same. Word is that Josh Shipp is also considering going this route. When the season started, it was generally assumed that Love was one and done, and Collison was also probably gone after this year. Both had their ups and downs, and we can all look for faults in their game, but at the end of the day, nothing has really changed since those pre-season assessments. In the meantime, Westbrook showed the athleticism and scoring ability in starter minutes that had us all salivating after watching him in limited minutes last year. In doing so, he turned himself into a likely first rounder, and possibly lottery pick. Shipp and Mbah A Moute didn’t have tremendous seasons. Shipp likely regressed a bit. But their decisions, should they decide to enter the draft, don’t surprise me one bit.

These decisions have prompted a number of critical comments from UCLA fans. They generally fall into a few categories. I’m going to attempt to categorize those complaints and deal with them in this post.

Complaint #1: Love is a (traitor/loser/liar/ingrate) for leaving UCLA after only one season. He was only at UCLA because the rules said he had to go to school for a year.
Response: Duh. No kidding. Very few people with functioning brains thought Love would stay for more than one year. If he falls to 20th in the draft, below where he’s currently projected, he’ll be guaranteed to earn over $3MM over the next three years. To be resentful of the fact that our society places such an importance on the ability to put a ball through a hoop (and/or prevent others from doing so) is just petty at this point. Kevin Love never promised UCLA anything, other than a season of hard work and good basketball (albeit with the potential for more). That’s exactly what he delivered.

Complaint #2: Why is (Mbah A Moute/Shipp) declaring. He clearly isn’t ready for the NBA. He can’t (shoot/score/defend) well enough to play at the next level.
Response: A lot of the complaints should really end right here. People need to familiarize themselves with the rules on underclassmen declaring for the draft before making asinine criticisms. The rules are basically as follows:

• A player may make himself draft eligible and still retain his college eligibility if he does not hire an agent or otherwise take money as a professional.
• A player can only do this once. In other words, a player cannot “test the waters” after his freshman, sophomore, and junior seasons. He may do so once, but the second time he declares, he loses any remaining eligibility.
• A player who tests the waters may work out for NBA scouts, get evaluated, receive feedback on the range of picks in the draft where he is likely to be selected.
• New this year, a player may have travel expenses paid for by the NBA teams for whom he is working out. Initially the NCAA did not allow players to receive compensation for expenses, but instead of discouraging kids from declaring, the old rule tended to encourage kids to hire agents and have those expenses paid. The NCAA changed the rule this year to allow more kids to retain their eligibility. See the link above for details.

The upshot of this is that all five Bruins may enter the draft and go through workouts without losing their eligibility. You have to ask yourself, if you’re Shipp or Mbah a Moute, why would you NOT do this? There is absolutely no downside for them (there’s a little bit of downside for Westbrook, a sophomore, who wouldn’t be able to declare and return again should he do so this year). There’s really no downside for ANY junior in the country to go this route. This leads somewhat toward…

Complaint/Comment #3: What if (Shipp/Mbah a Moute/Westbrook) get evaluated and are told they aren’t good enough, or have a major deficiency in one or more areas? Won’t that leave lasting impressions with scouts??
Response: Only if those scouts are idiots. Let’s say Shipp and LRMAM work out and are told they need to work on their shooting (for example). They spend the off-season working on jump shots. They play next season and show a major season-long improvement in that area. In pre-draft camps next year, they show scouts close up that they’ve really improved their shooting ability. Do you honestly think a scout is going ignore what he just saw, ignore what he saw all year, and make his determination based on a year old workout? Not if he’s worth anything.

There’s a side argument here that says LRMAM, for example, could go to these workouts and “show” scouts that he can’t shoot. If there’s a scout out there who doesn’t already know that LRMAM can’t shoot very well, he’s a very poor scout, and he probably won’t have a job very long. It’s not a secret that LRMAM struggled from mid to long range last year. It was in evidence pretty much every night.

NBA teams invest a lot of money in players – way too much money for them not to have done their homework. They’re not going to be surprised to learn that Darren Collison is a little on the small side, and though he shoots well, he needs a little more time to get off a long jumper. They are not going to be surprised when they see that Russel Westbrook is an athletic freak, but has an inconsistent jump shot. They’re not going to be surprised that LRMAM has a consistently bad jump shot. And what’s more, these players are familiar with their own weaknesses. But by going through pre-draft workouts, they’ll get an objective assessment of their skills and weaknesses. They’ll be told roughly what their prospects are for being drafted in the first round (or at all). If the news isn’t what they want to hear, they’ll be given feedback on what they need to do to improve their stock, and they’ll get that straight from the horse’s mouth.

It’s true that most of us only experience college once, maybe twice if you’re like me and you crawl back to grad school a couple of years after undergrad (best. decision. ever). It’s easy for those of us who aren’t making millions upon millions of dollars to say “you’ll regret that you didn’t stick around to soak up the college experience”. But the fact is that virtually all of us would do the same thing in their shoes.

My gut feeling is that Love is gone for good, as is Westbrook. Collison will join them shortly. LRMAM and Shipp will be evaluated and told that they need another year of school. I don’t know whether they’ll take that advice, but there are extenuating circumstances. LRMAM may see the chance to play overseas as an opportunity to be closer to home. He’s started in three straight Final Fours, and it’s a big rebuilding job next year. Shipp is the last one remaining from his recruiting class. The buddies that he entered with are all gone. His brother Joe is playing in Australia, and who knows, maybe Joe’s experience in playing abroad appeals to Josh. I don’t think those two are NBA ready, but that doesn’t mean they will be back, and it certainly doesn’t mean they should be back. That’s a decision that each needs to make on his own.

But what I can tell you is that declaring for the draft, not hiring an agent, and working out for NBA teams is absolutely the right thing for all five of those guys to do. If they decide to leave, I wish them the best of luck. If they come back, UCLA fans should welcome them with open arms.