The Angels in the Offseason – Four Big Decisions
By Bill Seitz
This is series that I borrowed from Reverend Halofan over at
. As the Angels head into the winter, they have some big decisions to make, and unfortunately, they don’t hold complete control over the outcomes. I’m going to look at four players who finished the season with the Angels who are either free agents, or will be free agents soon. The list is in order of their importance, with the current free agents considered the most important.
1) What To Do With Mark Teixeira
Sign him. Next question.
In all seriousness, I say something around 7-8 years, up to roughly 22 million per, depending on how crazy the market gets. Remember that the idea behind not spending too much is that you can use that money on, say, two good players. But if the market goes nuts and the two guys you could get for $11MM each now cost $15MM each, then you have to go higher for the premium players like Teixeira. If the Yankees just blow everyone out of the water, which seems to be the indication, then there’s not much you can do except try to bid them up and make them pay more than the want to.
I can’t see him signing in the exclusivity window. There’s just too much market uncertainty to sign at a comparable number from last year. I think he’s got to test the market and see how it shakes out. I’d put the odds on him coming back to Anaheim around 6-1. I’m not optimistic.
2) What To Do With Jon Garland
Another toughie, in that there’s no obvious replacement in the organization. There are candidates, but none are particularly trustworthy in a fifth starter role. I’m not Steve Green is ready for a regular rotation spot. I’m more sure that Nick Adenhart isn’t ready. I’m not sure Dustin Moseley will ever be ready. All three are potential sixth starters, but none jump out at me as rotation regulars at this point. Escobar looks like a mid-season bullpen guy at this point.
Not having a capable replacement in line presents a problem for a pitcher like Garland. I’m not sure the market knows what he worth, though I suspect it’s not the $12MM he earned last year. So let’s say they re-sign him at $7MM per, maybe $8MM. That takes them out of the market for C.C. Sabathia, unless they’re willing to sign both and deal with it later. But there’s no guarantee they end up with C.C. or even a solid middle rotation starter in free agency. If you wait to see what you can get on the market, you may end up waiting too long, at which point even Garland is gone.
I think the prudent thing to do is offer him arbitration (to preserve the compensation). Then they make a run at a front line starter. If they land one, they don’t re-sign Garland and hope he doesn’t accept arbitration. If they don’t, they re-up with Garland for a short term deal. If they fail to land a good starter AND Garland leaves, they go after a Garland comparable, or try to land one via trade.
Key point about arbitration, awards are for one year contracts. Worse case scenario, they sign a guy like Sabathia, and Garland accept arbitration. In that case, the Garland deal is only one year, and the Angels go into spring with six starters. Someone’s likely to get hurt (remember when Santana and Saunders were battling for one rotation spot?), or you deal Weaver or Saunders for a big bat. I don’t want to see either of those guys traded, but I’d do it for the right return.
3) What To Do With John Lackey
As big a no brainer as we’ll find. He has an option for 2009. Pick it up and extend him for as long as you can. All pitchers are injury risks. Lackey’s injury in 2008 was his first. He’s a critical piece of the Angels’ future, and he needs a long term deal. I’m thinking in the neighborhood of five years, but if the going market is at as much as seven, I’d probably go there.
Look, this is the current millennium’s Chuck Finley we’re talking about. An Angels lifer for this generation. He needs to be wearing the haloed A as long he can be effective. I can’t imagine him leaving anytime soon. He’s also a link to their championship, and a veteran presence on a pitching staff loaded with young players. Angels fans have seen him develop into a force, and he’s the type of presence every rotation needs. The anchor that will take the ball every fifth day and almost always give his team an excellent chance to win. He’s a guy that can stop losing streaks, and he doesn’t shy away from big games. And though he didn’t win in the post-season this year, he was as effective as he’s ever been, so I wouldn’t worry about him being unable to deliver when counted upon.
4) What To Do With Vladimir Guerrero
There is a club option for 2009 for $15MM. They can also buy him out for $3MM and make him a free agent.
Again, I think picking up the option is a no brainer. Vlad had the worst season of his career since his rookie year, and was still the best hitter on the team. Napoli and Teixeira both were better in terms of OPS+, but both did them in shorter Anaheim seasons. Still, going into next year, even assuming they re-signed Teixeira, Vlad would enter the season as the team’s best hitter.
Going forward, I’d love to see them re-up Vlad for another term. Three or four years would be great, but probably won’t get it done. I think it will take at least five, and that’s a deal I’d be willing to make for something close to his current deal. He’s still an elite hitter, but he should be thought of as an 80%-90% DH from this point forward. Next year the Angels will have Hunter in center, hopefully Morales at a corner outfield position (if they can re-sign Teixeira), and either Mattews or Juan Rivera at the other corner, again, subject to certain signings.
Believe it or not, the DH spot has actually been a real problem for the Angels over the last decade or so. Picking up guys who are clear cut hitters and clear cut non-fielders isn’t as easy as it sounds. Any time you can lock up a position, even one with as little scarcity as DH, I think it’s a good idea.
On the emotional side, five years will take Vlad to the end of his career. He’s likely to be around 500 homers by that point (he’d need to average about 22 per year), 1,700 RBIs, and a career average over .300, and right around 200 stolen bases. That’s almost guaranteed hall of fame territory, and there’s never been a hint of steroid speculation around him. Unless someone beats him to it (and right now, I can’t think of a candidate), he’d probably be the first player to enter the Hall of Fame with an Angels cap, and as far as I’m concerned, that counts for something.
So I say exercise the option, negotiate an extension, and hand him the everyday DH role through 2014.