Can Achilles Heal?: USC Trojans’ Injury-Plagued Start Hurts BCS Title Hopes

With the thermometer rising well over a hundred degrees and wildfires burning over 100,000 acres above the Los Angeles Basin, USC may see its own hopes for a national championship this season go up in smoke.

Even before the season has begun, the Trojans have incurred a season’s worth of major losses.

First, it was the anchor of the offensive line, center Kris O’Dowd, dislocating his knee. Then offensive lineman Nick Howell and defensive tackle Averell Spicer went out with ankle sprains. Then defensive end Armond Armstead suffered a broken foot.

Not only projected starters, but recruits as well have been lost to the Trojans. Frankie Telfort, one of the top linebacking recruits in the nation, had to give up football altogether due to an enlarged heart.

Perhaps the greatest loss came when starting quarterback Aaron Corp went down with a cracked fibula in the second week of fall camp. Corp had been picked in the spring to be the offensive leader, but now the reins have been handed over to true freshman Matt Barkley.

The news got even worse when the team played in their annual Fall Huddle last Saturday. Their No. 2 wide receiver and kickoff returner, Ronald Johnson, suffered a broken collarbone and will miss at least two months, if not the entire season.

That is certainly bad news for No. 1 wide receiver Damian Williams and also the freshman quarterback Barkley. Without Johnson to worry about, teams will likely double cover Williams. David Ausberry, who will replace Johnson, doesn’t have his moves or explosiveness and is much less experienced.

For Barkley, that means one of his favorite targets, especially for the long bomb, will be gone, and the other one, Williams, will be double covered. If Barkley tries to force the ball in to Williams, the Trojans could be in for a long season.

There was a little good news, however, as Spicer returned to practice today. But O’Dowd, who hoped to be back for the opener against San Jose State, did not return. He might not even return for the Ohio State game the following week.

Just when you thought the news could not get any worse, Pete Carroll announced that starting cornerback Shareece Wright has been declared academically ineligible.

So, not only do the Trojans have to move personnel around at wide receiver, now they have to do it in the defensive backfield as well. Safety Josh Pinkard will take over at corner for Wright while Will Harris fills in at Pinkard’s strong safety spot.

For me, it is a case of one or two too many. Yes, the old adage during the Carroll era has been that USC doesn’t rebuild, they reload. But this is simply too many injuries to key starters this early, especially in areas where they graduated so many top players last year, namely the front seven on defense and quarterback. I think this is the year that it finally catches up to Carroll and the Trojans.

PREDICTION

I don’t think it will be too bad by most teams’ standards—just by Pete Carroll’s. I am predicting a two- or three-loss season—and no, one of the losses will NOT be to Ohio State. The Buckeyes match up perfectly for the Trojans. What speed the Buckeyes have on offense, namely Terrelle Pryor, will be matched by the quicker, speedier Trojan defense.

As I mentioned, Williams will get double coverage everywhere he goes this season, and Barkley is likely to throw into that coverage like he did in the mock game last Saturday. Nevertheless, even with two Buckeye interceptions, I expect the Trojan running game and that quick defense to prevail.

However, the Trojans do not match up well against Oregon. If Corp hasn’t healed by then or the staff is just adamant about sticking with Barkley, I expect the freshman quarterback to have a rude awakening in Autzen Stadium, a burial ground for freshly anointed visiting quarterbacks.

The Cal game is another tough matchup that can go either way. This could be the second loss for the Trojans, the one that will keep them from repeating as Pac-10 champions and earning a Rose Bowl berth. Jahvid Best is the best as far as tailbacks are concerned.

Although I don’t expect that front seven to have much trouble with Pryor, I do expect them to have a long day trying to contain Mr. Best. Turnovers and field position will determine this one.

Depending on the outcome of the Cal game, I expect the Trojans’ second or third loss of the season to come from one of the usual, unexpected suspects: Oregon State, an improving UCLA, or Stanford.

I would add to that list Arizona, which has played the Trojans close both in the Coliseum and in Tucson going back a couple of years.

The other team on the list is the resurgent Irish. They came close in Matt Leinart’s final season. Who can forget that dramatic fourth-and-long pass to Dwayne Jarrett and then the Bush Push?

There could be a loss in one of those games. With Ronald Johnson out for the season (the six-to-eight-week estimate is highly suspect for a broken collarbone), the season could turn into a real disaster if anything happens to Damian Williams while returning punts.

With the No. 2 receiver out, why does Carroll want to take extra chances with his No. 1 receiver when he has a plethora of running backs and lower depth chart receivers like Brandon Carswell who could do the job?

Those who might argue with my prediction, remember one thing: One has to realize that the Trojans have already had a full season’s worth of injuries, and the season hasn’t even started yet. There are bound to be more injuries starting this coming week. It’s inevitable. It’s part of the game.

And that’s a huge part of my reasoning in predicting a 10-2 or 9-3 regular season.

If they can stay healthy from here on out, then…oh well, good luck and limp on.