NFL Playoff Scenarios

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11 teams are still alive in the AFC, with only four being assured of a spot in the playoffs. The other seven are basically already in a playoff-of sorts, where if they lose, they’re out and if they win, they may still be. The NFC is more organized. Barely. We know which six teams will be playing, but only one of them has their seed wrapped up. It should be quite a day on Sunday!

The first tie-breaker in any sceanrio is always head-to-head matchups. Next up is record against conference opponents. Things are usually settled by that time, but with seven teams within one game of one another and two spots on the line, the AFC tie-breakers could end up going pretty deep. I’ve left the possibility of a tie game out of the scenarios because let’s face it, there isn’t going to be a tie game. Here’s how things shake out through Week 16:

AFC

1 Indianapolis Colts 14-1 (AFC South Champs, clinched 1 seed)

2 San Diego Chargers 12-3 (AFC West Champs, clinched 2 seed)

3 Cincinnati Bengals 10-5 (AFC North Champs, clinched hosting first round game)

4 New England Patriots 10-5 (AFC East Champs, clinched hosting first round game)

5 New York Jets 8-7

6 Baltimore Ravens 8-7

7 Denver Broncos 8-7

8 Houston Texans 8-7

9 Pittsburgh Steelers 8-7

10 Miami Dolphins 7-8

11 Jacksonville Jaguars 7-8

Possible Scenarios

Cincinnati – 3 seed: Bengals win

Cincinnati – 4 seed: Bengals lose + Patriots win

New England – 3 seed: Patriots win + Bengals lose

New England – 4 seed: Patriots and Bengals both win or both lose

New York – 5 seed: Jets win

Baltimore – 5 seed: Ravens win + Jets lose

Baltimore – 6 seed: Ravens and Jets both win

Denver – 5 seed: Broncos win + Jets lose + Ravens lose + Texans lose

Denver – 6 seed: Brocnos win + Jets or Ravens lose + Steelers and/or Texans lose, OR Steelers lose + any two losses by the Jets, Ravens and Texans

Houston – 5 seed: Texans win + Jets lose + Ravens lose + Broncos lose

Houston – 6 seed: Texans win + and two losses by the Jets, Ravens and Broncos

Pittsburgh – 5 seed: Steelers win + Jets lose + Ravens lose + Texans lose

Pittsburgh – 6 seed: Steelers win + Jets lose + Ravens lose + Broncos lose + Texans win, OR Steelers win + Texans lose + Jets lose, OR Steelers win + Texans lose + Ravens lose

Miami – 6 seed: Dolphins win +Jets lose + Ravens lose + Broncos lose + Texans lose + Jaguars lose

Jacksonville – 5 seed: Jaguars win + Jets lose + Ravens lose + Broncos lose + Texans lose + Steelers lose

Jacksonville – 6 seed: Jaguars win + Jets lose + Ravens lose + Broncos lose + Texans lose + Steelers win, OR Jaguars win + Dolphins win + 3 or more losses by the Jets, Ravens, Broncos and Texans

Matchups

Indianapolis Colts play at Buffalo

San Diego Chargers host Washington

Cincinnati Bengals play at New York Jets

New England Patriots play at Houston

New York Jets host Cincinnati

Baltimore Ravens host Oakland

Denver Broncos play at Kansas City

Houston Texans play at New England

Pittsburgh Steelers host Miami

Miami Dolphins play at Pittsburgh

Jacksonville Jaguars play at Cleveland

 NFC

1 New Orleans Saints 13-2 (NFC South Champs, clinched 1 seed)

2 Philadelphia Eagles 11-4*

3 Minnesota Vikings 11-4 (NFC North Champs)

4 Arizona Cardinals 10-5 (NFC West Champs)

5 Green Bay Packers 10-5

6 Dallas Cowboys 10-5*

*-Dallas hosts Philadelphia in Week 17 and the winner is the NFC East champ

Possible Scenarios

Philadelphia – 2 seed: Eagles win

Philadelphia – 5 seed: Eagles lose + Packers lose

Philadelphia – 6 seed: Eagles lose + Packers win

Minnesota – 2 seed: Vikings win + Eagles lose

Minnesota – 3 seed: Vikings win + Eagles win, OR Vikings lose + Eagles win + Cardinals lose

Minnesota – 4 seed: Vikings lose + Eagles win + Cardinals win

Arizona – 2 seed: Cardinals win + Eagles lose + Vikings lose

Arizona – 3 seed: Cardinals win + Eagles win + Vikings lose, OR Cardinals win + Eagles lose + Vikings win

Arizona – 4 seed: Cardinals lose, OR both Eagles and Vikings win

Green Bay – 5 seed: Packers win

Green Bay – 6 seed: Packers lose + Cowboys win

Dallas – 2 seed: Cowboys win + Vikings lose + Cardinals lose

Dallas – 3 seed: Cowboys win + Vikings win + Cardinals lose, OR Cowboys win + Vikings lose + Cardinals win

Dallas – 4 seed: Cowboys win + Vikings win + Cardinals win

Dallas – 6 seed: Cowboys lose

Matchups

New Orleans Saints play at Carolina

Philadelphia Eagles play at Dallas

Minnesota Vikings host New York Giants

Arizona Cardinals host Green Bay

Green Bay Packers play at Arizona

Dallas Cowboys host Philadelphia

Under most likely scenarios, both the Eagles-Cowboys and Cardinals-Packers games will be rematched in the first round of the playoffs, though the home sites are up for grabs.