The Trayvon Robinson Trade: When is it Too Early to Judge?

At what point is it justified to truly judge a trade in baseball? Is it at the time of the transaction, given the timeframe, parameters and knowledge of the clubs partaking in the swap? Or is it long after, when the dust settles, stats are accumulated and a conclusion is written?

Photo by Stephen Dunn/Getty Images via Zimbio

For some trades, initial reviews are far from the final remarks, like the Paul Lo Duca trade. Paul Depodesta, who won the wrong kind of lottery when Jonah Hill was selected to play him in Moneyball, was simply the worst general manager in Dodgers history, a feat mainly pinned to him after dealing the Brooklyn-born catcher that epitomized what it meant to be a Dodger.

Lo Duca’s pitfalls in OPS and OBP left much to be desired for the sabermetrician, who swapped him and setup man Guillermo Mota out for Hee-Seop Choi, Brad Penny and minor leaguer Bill Murphy, all in hopes for a dream shot at Randy Johnson. It didn’t happen, and Brad Penny was given the tall task of living up to the shadow of the Big Unit.

Depodesta was crucified in Los Angeles, mainly from the lynchpins of the LA Times(Bill Plaschke and T.J. Simers), who claimed that Depodesta “put the cart before the ace”, turning the “Dodgers from winners — overnight — into losers”.

Choi, a former Cubs farmhand who had already been given up on in Chicago’s acquisition of Derrek Lee, batted just .161 for the Dodgers in 2004, but they still made the playoffs on the back of Adrian Beltre’s career year (which incidently won Depodesta’s approval, as the third basemen was never re-signed).

But the trade, condemned from the beginning, has only turned greener as the years have gone on, much to the chagrin of Depodesta, who was sacked after the 2005 season. Despite the struggles of the now Korean League star Choi, the face-plants of Lo Duca and Mota could take the cake in assessing the controversial deal.

As ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick said in 2008, “since leaving Los Angeles, Lo Duca has been scrutinized for everything from his gambling habits to his extramarital flings to his comments that the Latin players in New York should be available for media interviews because they speak better English than everybody thinks. And that was before Lo Duca’s name popped up in the Mitchell report.” Plaschke even called his leadership a “sham” in 2007, a contradiction to his words after the trade. And Mota’s fate wasn’t much better, getting busted for steroids in 2006 and posting ERA’s higher than four in every subsequent season but one, when he reunited with the Dodgers in 2009.

So while it was easy to blame Depodesta at the time of deal, it brings into question when trades should be evaluated. Does judging a trade initially have merit, or should we as consumers of baseball, simply wait and savor the long term effects?

For the Dodgers, this is a trying time, given the sending off of top prospect Trayvon Robinson to the Seattle Mariners for what seems now, like a bunch of scraps and an end of the rotation dark horse from the Boston Red Sox as part of a three team deal for Erik Bedard. Robinson, a hometown kid, looked like he was poised for a September call up, and appeared to be a solid candidate to not only compete for the starting job in left field, but hold it for years to come.

In 100 games at Triple-A Albuquerque, Robinson had 26 homers and drove in 71, so for a team like the Dodgers who have struggled to score runs, Robinson had “long-term solution” written all over him. So why did the Dodgers trade him?

Money can’t play a role, simply because dealing him in theory costs more money than keeping him. If the Dodgers really wanted to cut payroll, then they would have seen that Robinson, in effect made Andre Ethier financially expendable. Finding a new home for Ethier, and paying Robinson the league minimum for a few seasons during his pre-arbitration years would have saved millions of dollars, in addition to likely bringing back a significant haul for the All-Star right fielder.

Ned Colletti says it was the need for depth at the catching position, in the acquiring of Tim Federowicz. He’s a 24-year-old who slugged .371 last season, his second full year in the minors. Keep dreaming Ned, catching depth can’t be the reason.

So what was it, then? Pitching depth? With pitcher Rubby De La Rosa out until after the Mayan calendar ends, acquiring a young arm in hopes of limiting the need of free agent signings, could be the answer. Stephen Fife broke out this season with the Portland of the Eastern League, going 11-4 with a 3.66 ERA in Double-AA despite posting the highest WHIP of his career. Does that make him worth sacrificing the future of Robinson, for a shot in the future’s rotation? Thinking presently no, but again, is now the time to judge the deal?

Surely, any current notions of the deal now would be profoundly negative from the Dodgers stand point, as Trayvon Robinson made his big league debut this past weekend for the Mariners, down the road in Anaheim. And of course, to jab at the hearts of many, he robbed a home run from Torii Hunter on Friday night, and hit his first big league home run on Saturday night. He looks like a Major Leaguer.

Thinking with our hearts now may be not be the wisest decision on our behalves, but it surely it is convincing. One can’t possibly hold off judgment until Robinson’s and Fife’s careers play out, but without knowing any better, would it really make anyone more sensible?

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