PAC-12 COUNTDOWN: NORTH # 2/1 STANEGON
Shiloh Winder is concluding his countdown of the teams in the Pac-12 North Division with this rundown comparing Oregon and Stanford. This is Part 2. If you missed Part 1, you can read it HERE
TAILBACKS: Oregon absolutely tore up opponents on the ground last year with a spread option attack that produced an astonishing eight players who averaged over 5 yards per carry (though 4 of those players carried the ball fewer than 50 times, all had at least a dozen touches).
As I’m sure you know already, LaMichael James and Kenjon Barner are both back for their junior seasons and hoping to pick up right where the Ducks left off last year.
Stanford also had a potent rushing attack last year and returns its top three tailbacks. Junior Stephan Taylor got the bulk of the carries last year and like Oregon’s top backs, he averaged over 5 ypc himself. Stanford averaged 214 rushing yards per game last year and Taylor was 2nd team All-Pac -10. The Cardinal has built its resurgence on smash-mouth running, and will have a ground attack to be proud of this year.
However, in this comparison, there is no comparison. Oregon averaged a jaw-dropping 371 rushing yards per game at home last year and 286 overall. They have the best running back corps in the country and win this going away. BIG EDGE: OREGON
FRONT SEVEN: Both teams’ offenses are so fantastic, it’s easy to analyze them without even thinking of defense. But as we’ve all been told, defense wins Championships. No one was more hypnotized by Oregon’s offense last year than I was, but I picked them to lose the BCS Championship game simply because I thought Nick Fairley and Auburn’s D-Line would disrupt Oregon’s attack.
When these teams play top competition, their offenses will not be enough, and when they play each other on November 12th, the team that plays the best defense will almost certainly win.
Oregon’s offense scores so quickly it’s not uncommon for the Ducks defense to be on the field for the bulk of the game. Last year, that translated to the Ducks allowing their highest points per game average in the last seven years.
It won’t help them much that they are losing three of their top 4 tacklers and six of their top nine. That group, of course, includes All Pac-10 LB Casey Matthews.
Stanford loses 5 of their 11 starters on defense, but returns all 4 of their top tacklers from last year, including all Pac-10 LB Shayne Skov.
Both units lost about half of their players to graduation, both have strong recruiting classes to help them fill the void, but with all their best players returning, Stanford looks to be even better than last year, while Oregon will struggle to replicate last season’s middling results. BIG EDGE: STANFORD
DEFENSIVE BACKS: Oregon specializes in the defensive backfield year after year and this year should be no exception. They did lose a number of strong players here including CB Talmadge Jackson who started all 13 games for the Ducks last season. But of course, All-World corner Cliff Harris returns, and given the way the Ducks recruit and coach this area, I’m sure the new players around him will play well also.
Given Oregon’s reputation in this area, it may surprise you to learn that Stanford actually allowed fewer passing ypg than the Ducks last season. The Cardinal return 2nd team All-Pac-10 corner Delano Howell, but they lost their top cover-corner in Richard Sherman (who Pete Carroll drafted to the Seahawks). Stanford shouldn’t fret about this area this season, but Cliff Harris is Cliff Harris. EDGE: OREGON
SPECIAL TEAMS: When Cliff Harris isn’t returning interceptions (he had six last year), he’s returning punts for the Ducks. He averaged a stellar 18.8 ypr last season and is a unanimous choice at the best in the Pac this season.
However, Stanford Speedster Chris Owusu is a top kick returner and was even named 1st team All-Pac 12 this year by Sports Illustrated, so we’ll call the return game a push. But the fact that Oregon returns a quality kicker in Rob Beard and Stanford’s kicker will be a redshirt freshman breaks the tie. EDGE: OREGON
SCHEDULE: Stanford’s non-conference schedule is San Jose State, @ Duke, and their regular season finale (even after Cal? For shame!) hosting Notre Dame. Oregon opens in Texas against LSU (a virtual road game), Nevada (who’s record was even better than Oregon’s last year at 13-1) and Missouri State.
In Pac-12 play, the Ducks get four home games and Stanford gets five. Both avoid Utah out of the South, but Stanford avoids ASU as well meaning they play only one of the South’s top three. That is a road game at USC, but the Cardinal has made a habit of destroying the Coliseum’s mystique in recent years, going 4-2 in their last six trips to the Coliseum.
Oregon has USC and Arizona State at home but again, they have one fewer Pac-10 home game than Stanford and one of their home games is wasted on Washington State. Conversely, Stanford has the Cougs on the Road, meaning they have only three conference road games worth sweating over.
Stanford has a much easier non-conference slate (Notre Dame will be good this year, but better to play them at the end of the season than play LSU in the South your first game of the year.), a much, much easier Pac-12 schedule and plays only one road game vs. a ’10 bowl team all year. Oregon has four of those: BIG EDGE: STANFORD
FINAL VERDICT: The more we break this down, the more even it looks. The teams ended this breakdown winning four categories each and both have a ton going for them. But when you boil it down to the end, here’s what’s left: Oregon has the coaching edge, and Stanford has the edge with players and the schedule.
The Ducks do return their three biggest names in James, Thomas and Barner, and Cliff Harris’ return gives the Ducks defense some cachet. But, it warrants mentioning that the Ducks are also replacing their two top receivers in Jeff Maehl and DJ Davis. Stanford is returning its best skill guys as well and has far fewer holes to fill along the lines. Losing Casey Matthews was a huge loss for the Ducks on D, while Stanford still has Shayne Skov and their other 4 top tacklers roaming the defensive front seven.
As great as Oregon is, I think it will be almost impossible for them to replace so many offensive linemen and keep running the ball at the same incredible pace. I think they take a small step back this year and Stanford takes a step up with more critical players returning and a friendlier schedule.
The bottom line is, Stanford is more experienced all over the field and has no shortage of talent or big name skill guys. They do lose Harbaugh, who was the heart and soul of the team, but essentially everyone on the coaching staff took one step to the right and the Cardinal should look exactly the same from a schematic standpoint, even with a new head coach.
Harbaugh’s leadership will be sorely missed, but I don’t think that will become a big issue until #12 becomes the #1 pick in April. Andrew Luck isn’t just a great arm. He’s an intelligent, charismatic leader fully capable of providing the moral compass for a conference champion. This season, He will do just that. FINAL VERDICT: STANFORD!