Pac 12 Countdown: South #5 Arizona
Shiloh Winder is counting down the teams of the Pac-12 to the season kickoff this weekend. He did a rundown of his #6 team, the Colorado Buffalos when they joined the Pac – 12 that can be read here.
Arizona enters 2011 coming off a tale of two seasons. 2010 was truly the best of times, and the worst of times. The Cats beat #9 Iowa in September and launched themselves into the AP top 25. This may not seem like a big deal to those who follow USC, but before that, Arizona had been ranked a combined two weeks in the previous nine seasons, topping out at #18 in November of 2009.
So waking up on a Monday morning to a #14 football team was a big deal in Tuscon. The following week, the Wildcats posted a not so convincing 10 – 9 victory over Cal and were vaulted even higher, into the top ten.
It all seemed a little too good to be true, and sure enough, it was. The OSU Beavers visited the desert the next week and brought the Cats back down to the Earth 27-29. But the loss didn’t knock Arizona out of the AP Poll and they rebounded with a few more wins against the likes of UCLA and Washington.
Suddenly, the Cats were 7-1 and hanging out in the low teens of the AP Poll coming into November. It looked like best Arizona football season since the mid-90s Desert Swarm days, except for one thing. Aside from the early showdown with Iowa, Arizona’s schedule was heavily back-weighted and in late October, it kicked-in like an adjustable rate mortgage. Arizona’s last 4 games: At Stanford, USC, at Oregon, Arizona State.
They lost a one point OT win at home vs. their in-state rival, and lost the other three by a combined 67-114. That knocked the he Cats out of the top 25, but insult would follow injury. They faced Oklahoma State in the Alamo Bowl and lost 36-10 in spite of outgaining the cowboys by 58 yards.
This year the Cats return all their big name skill players, but Arizona has more problems that meet the eye. Star quarterback Nick Foles is back, as is star receiver Juron Criner and last year’s leading rusher, Keola Antolin. But beyond the skill positions, things get dicey in the desert. The Wildcats return the fewest starters of any team in the Pac-12 and are going to be trying to protect their big name quarterback with an offensive line that must replace all five starters. The Cats also lost more than half of their starting defense, but on the plus side, their basketball recruiting class is looking great.
The schedule isn’t looking favorable for the Cats either. They traded a back-loade schedule last year for a front-loaded one this year. Meaning their inexperienced lineup will be baptized by fire. Arizona gets only four conference home games (and five on the road), draws both Stanford and Oregon out of the North and does not get to play Washington State.
After an opener against NAU, the Cats take a trip to Stillwater for a rematch of last year’s bowl against preseason #9 Oklahoma State. They’ll follow that by hosting Stanford, and Oregon in back to back weeks and then have to come to the Coliseum to play USC.
The good news is, the stretch following that is much more manageable and should seem like a piece of cake: At Oregon State, bye, UCLA, at Washington.
It is a sad situation to have star quarterback, running back and All-Pac-10 receiver all play their senior seasons behind a totally rebuilt offensive line, but that is reality in Tucson. Arizona is going to have a lot of young players grow up quickly with a very difficult September. I look for them to have a very different season than last year that should conclude with the Cats rebounding late, rather than heading down hill.
A peculiar season finale against Sun Belt foe Louisiana-Lafayette could easily tip the scales of Bowl eligibility for the Cats and energize a beleaguered fan base. Arizona has plenty of firepower in 2011, but a difficult schedule and inexperience will likely doom Arizona to finish near the bottom of the Pac-12 South.
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