Pac 12 Countdown: South #2 USC
Note: Shiloh has the Utah #3 in the Pac-12. to read his preview of the Utes, click here
Life isn’t good in the NCAA’s doghouse. For the 2nd year in a row, the Trojans are starting a season with no prospect of a post-season. And this year, USC doesn’t even have a conference championship to play for.
USC went 8-5 last year, which was good for third best overall in the Pac-10, but after USC’s recent run of dominance, it was hard for anyone in Troy to see a 5-loss season as anything other than a disaster.
Pete Carroll left USC after the most successful run in modern college football history. The Trojans won Back to back national championships, three Heisman Trophies and went to seven consecutive BCS Bowls.
Former Quarterbacks coach and Offensive Coordinator Lane Kiffin took over for Carroll last season and now has the difficult job of overseeing a program trying to put on a show of culture change for the NCAA without losing the edge that made it great.
That’s a tough line to walk, especially with significantly reduced scholarships, no bowl to motivate your team and an open door for upper-classmen to transfer somewhere else.
But for his part, Kiffin has done as well as anyone could have hoped for. He somehow maintained USC’s massive advantage in local recruiting over UCLA and continuted the Trojan’s streak of appearances in ESPN’s recruiting top 10 like Pete Carroll never left.
On the field, the Trojan’s record isn’t what fans expect, but Kiffin is an offensive coach and the Trojans’ 431 ypg and 31 ppg were on par with Carroll Era numbers and up significantly over Carroll’s last season (2009).
And this is what makes the current Trojans such an enigma. With Monty Kiffin and Ed Orgeron, USC had somewhat of a defensive coaching dream team assembled in Troy. Carroll was a defensive HC, but Kiffin Sr. is Carroll’s coaching mentor and Orgeron was the defensive coordinator for both of USC’s National Championships. Defense was supposed to be the most stable aspect of the program.
But that’s not out it turned out. USC opened the Post-Carroll Era by allowing 588 yards at Hawai’i and a USC record worst 459 passing yards. The Trojans also allowed over 500 yards to Washington, Oregon and Arizona, and nearly 500 to Stanford. On the Season the Trojans D averaged 400 ypg.
I’d tell you the last season the Trojans defense was that bad, but USC’s media guide only gives stats back to 1955.
The Trojans’ offense didn’t have a perfect season, but probably shoulders more of the blame than they deserved. In the losses at Stanford, and Washington USC had nearly 500 yards of offense and scored 66 points. You have to outscore your opponent, but if Matt Barkley throws for 390 yards, that should be enough to win the game.
However, late in the season, USC’s offense started to struggle as much as its defense. One big problem was quarterback play when it mattered. In USC’s first eight games, Matt Barkley averaged a very solid 279 passing yards per game. In the last four games however, he averaged only 175.
The hallmark of the Pete Carroll era was undefeated play in November, the month when rivalries are settled and conferences are won. But that stopped when Barkley came around.
Local media is beginning to notice that late season struggles are becoming a tradition for USC’s young quarterback. Petros Papidakis recently pointed out that in games before October 25, Matt Barkley is 11-3 as a starter with a 27:9 ratio. But in games Oct. 25 and later, Barkley’s record is 6-6 and his ratio is an abysmal 14:17.
Considering that from 2002-2008 USC was 40-3 in games played after October 25, 6-6 is an unbelievable drop-off. That stat alone explains USC’s fall from Rose Bowls to the Emrald Bowl and from Heisman to also-ran.
Of course the program is suffering many challenges under probation and no one should ever insinuate that this drop off is one man’s fault. However, if Barkley is to ever become the quarterback USC fans hope he will be (or claim he already is), he needs to play his best football after Halloween, not his worst.
Trojan fans like to talk Heisman for Barkley, but that’s hard to say with a straight face when he’s consistently losing to Luck and Thomas and watching Nick Foles throw for double his passing yards when they go head-to-head. Barkley will be an upper-classman this season and it may be his last year in Troy. If USC is to contend for the South Division, they will need him to step up his game when the chips are down.
At tailback, the Trojans have would-be starter Marc Tyler on the scout team while he fills his indefinite suspension. Dillon Baxter, DJ Morgan and Curtis McNeal are currently in a three-way battle to fill Tyler’s role. It isn’t clear who will start for the Trojans against Minnestoa this weekend, but ultimately it doesn’t matter. All three will get carries and USC will have yet another season of too many running backs splitting too few carries. The running game will be good, but not as dominant as the talent level implies.
Speaking of talent level, it’s hard to find a position group where USC doesn’t have a star. The defense was suspect last year, but Sophomore corner
Nickell Robey has drawn raves from coaches during summer camp and will be much improved as a 2nd year starter. He has even made some pre-season All-Pac-12 teams. Saftey TJ McDonald should also be All-Pac-12 in the defensive backfield and ready to lead the Trojans pass defense to a significantly better season in their second year under Kiffin and Orgeron.
Up front, Jurrell Casey is gone to the NFL, but Nick Perry and Wes Horton are still around and will provide plenty of pressure for the Trojans off the edges. If these stars bring pressure rushing four, Monty Kiffin’s cover 2 will be very difficult to throw against and USC’s turnover margin should climb higher than last year’s +4.
USC is the media’s choice to win the Pac-12 South and they have the best talent in the division by a mile. However, the NCAA sanctions loom over everything and teams with no post-season to play for typically have a crisis of focus when the first thing goes wrong.
Unfortunately, this year, pleanty of things could. The Trojans’ schedule requires them to play at Arizona State, Notre Dame and Oregon. The Trojans haven’t won at Autzen since 2005 and their troubles in the Beaver State are becoming legendary. Factor in that USC doesn’t get to play WSU and has lost 4 of 6 at the Coliseum to visiting Stanford, and this looks like one more re-loading year for a USC program just biding it’s time.