Hunt for a Red October: 3 Keys to the AL West Crown

With 140 games in the books, it’s officially crunch time in Anaheim.

As a season full of ups and downs approaches the finish line, the Angels find themselves very much within striking distance of the division-leading Texas Rangers.

We know what needs to happen for the Halos to punch their playoff ticket. We know Weaver/Haren/Santana need to continue their dominance on the mound. We know the lineup needs to deliver the big hit with runners in scoring position. We know Bourjos needs to continue to lead the 4th best defense in the big leagues. Save the obvious, what really needs to happen if the Angels plan to run down the defending AL champs and bring October baseball back to Anaheim?

1. Joel Pineiro needs to hold down the back of the rotation.

The sinker-baller picked up his sixth win of the season with seven innings of one-run ball vs. the Minnesota Twins yesterday afternoon. It was Pineiro’s first win since beating the Seattle Mariners all the way back on July 9th. The victory over the Mariners was followed by four nightmare starts by the right-hander, which ultimately landed him in the mop-up role in the Halos bullpen.

However, with Garrett Richards on the disabled list and Tyler Chatwood in AAA-Salt Lake, Pineiro was essentially forced back into the rotation two weeks ago. The righty hasn’t dazzled since his return, but he has given the Halos a chance to win when he has taken the mound, which they have done in 2 of 3 of his starts.

Pineiro transitioned into a true sinker-baller in 2009 where he found immediate success. The re-invented Pineiro posted a career best 3.64 ERA in St. Louis and followed it up with a 3.73 ERA in 2010 with the Angels. However, 2011 has been quite another story for Pineiro who sports an ERA north of 5 on the year. A look at Pineiro’s PitchFX reveals the reason for his struggles: His sinker simply isn’t sinking.

In comparison to 2009 and 2010, Pineiro’s sinker has lost an inch to an inch and a half of both horizontal and vertical movement. We’ve all heard the saying “baseball is a game of inches” and Pineiro’s 2011 season is bringing that cliche to life. The loss of movement has resulted in less ground balls (48% compared to 58% in 2009-10) as well as a spike in line drives (21.5% compared to 16% in 2009-10) and fly balls. The elevated line drive and flyball rates merely provide empirical evidence that Pineiro has, in fact, been getting rocked this year.

While Joel has not performed at the level we had hoped, the righty is coming off a solid start in which only 3 of the 24 balls put in play were line drives and the only run he surrendered came off a 3-2 fastball that Joe Mauer deposited into the right field bleachers. As a matter of fact, since his return to the rotation Pineiro has allowed 11 line drives on 73 balls in play (15%), which is right in line with his 2009-2010 rates.

The Halos are blessed with a favorable schedule down the stretch, but with so little room for error they will need their starting pitchers to give them a chance to win every single night. Whether or not Joel Pineiro can deliver over the next three weeks is critical in the playoff push.

2. Mike Trout needs to receive regular playing time.

Back in March the MLB Network named Mike Trout the top prospect in all of baseball, and he has not disappointed. All the chatter about Trout having the potential to be a “5-tool player” needs to end. Forget potential. At just 20-years old, the rookie has already flashed all five tools at the major league level. He’s ready now, and Scioscia has to find a way to get him in the lineup on a regular basis. After all, the Halos are a remarkable 17-5 when Mike Trout is in the starting lineup!

Scioscia needs to put the best players on the field, even if that means paying Vernon Wells $125,000 a night to watch the game from the bench. Wells has hit a nauseating .184 vs. right-handed pitching this year but has managed to save some face with a .301/.343/.535 slash line against south paws. Another veteran, Bobby Abreu has struggled mightily vs. lefties (.611 OPS) while hitting righties to the tune of a .764 OPS. Sounds like a DH platoon to me.

Simply giving Wells, Hunter, Abreu and Bourjos a day off a week will get Trout into the lineup somewhat regularly. However, it’s time for Scioscia to find a way to get him in the lineup 5-6 times a week, even if that means reduced playing time for veterans.

3. Someone needs to step up as a shutdown 7th inning arm.

It’s no secret the Halos have lacked a reliable bridge to Downs and Walden. Fernando Rodney is nothing short of a pyro. He usually gets the fire started with a lead off walk before pouring gasoline everywhere as we sit and watch the Angels chances to grab a “W” go up in flames. Hisanori Takahashi as very mediocre (at best), and Trevor Bell will likely be called upon for any long relief or spot start duties. That leaves us with two candidates to step up and own this ever-important role.

The first is Bobby Cassevah, who has seemingly been called upon more and more as of late in high leverage situations. The young right-hander has done a decent job posting a remarkable groundball rate (71%) en route to a 2.90 ERA. Unfortunately, Cassevah has shown some control issues (4.35 BB/9) and has not demonstrated the ability to strike batters out (5.52 K/9). Sure, the ability to get the double play ball is useful, but when I think of a dominant reliever, I’m thinking about the guy that can come in with the bases loaded, one out, and toss back-to-back punch outs to end the inning and preserve a lead. Cassevah isn’t that guy.

That leaves the Aussie, Rich Thompson. Thompson has quietly put together a very nice season striking out more than a batter per inning and stranding 82% of runners that reach base, second to only Scott Downs (88%).

Thompson’s command and ability to get the strikeout make him the best candidate to get the call in high leverage situations. If he can step up and be the bridge to the 8th and 9th inning, the Halos could very well end up playing baseball in October.

Dan Haren will toe the rubber tonight as the Halos try to cut the deficit to 2.5 games. It appears Mike Scioscia is paying attention as Bobby Abreu will have the night off vs. Seattle lefty Anthony Vasquez. Mike Trout is starting in left field.

Every pitch matters as we countdown to the pivotal 3-game series vs. the Rangers to close out the season. Keep the faith.

Feel free to send any questions or article suggestions to cbragg84@gmail.com

Editor’s note: Dan Haren took care of business against the Mariners last night, beating them 7-3 and putting the Angels closer to the Rangers; they are now 2 1/2 games back.