Pac-12 Week 4 Matchups:
Pac-12 play begins in earnest this week with four intraconference games and Colorado’s trip to Columbus. Let’s break these games down, one by one. (Home team in BOLD CAPS).
ARIZONA STATE (2-1) over #23USC (3-0) It’s a bit early in the season, but this is the de-facto Pac-12 South Championship game. The division title is all USC has to play for this year and with a victory over Utah in their pocket and UCLA and Arizona each possessing exactly half an offense (can you imagine Nick Foles and Juron Criner paired with the Bruins running game??), a victory over ASU would essentially guarantee the Trojans a spot at the top of the South Standings for the season.
USC has not lost in the State of Arizona this century, and ASU was the only team in the Pac-10 that never beat Pete Carroll (Win Forever!!).
Since 2000, The Trojans are 8-0 in the Grand Canyon State, and are on an eleven game win streak against the Sun Devils.
That withstanding, you can’t deny that the Devils seem due. They lost their last two to the Trojans by 5 combined points, and last year came within one point of beating USC in the Coliseum. With 15 starters returning, a big upgrade at quarterback and home field advantage, ASU will finally make the leap and get that elusive win over USC. The Sun Devils have one win over a ranked team already at Sun Devil Stadium. I think this week, they make it two.
OHIO STATE (2-1) over Colorado (1-2) Colorado may be coming off a win over Colorado State, and Ohio State was shown up a bit at Miami last weekend, but there’s really no reason to think the Buffalos can win at the Horseshoe. The Buffs haven’t won a road game since 2007. If they break that streak in front of 102,000 in Columbus, the State of Ohio might just close its doors forever.
Maybe CU will get a win in their next road game. Let’s see…where is that? Stanford? Then USC? Ok, well, maybe next season.
OREGON STATE (0-2) over UCLA (1-2) I joked in the Pac-12 roundup earlier in the week that the loser of this game would be relegated to the Big East. Since then, Larry Scott has publicly stated that the Pac isn’t interesting in getting involved in the Big XII’s pissing match, so I guess we can’t trade UCLA for Oklahoma, but we might want to after the Bruins lose in Corvallis this weekend.
(By the way, I’m so tired of hearing people say these Big XII teams were “really close” to joining the Pac. These schools are jostling for position out on the plains and have essentially been using talks with the Pac to threaten each other. It was posturing and I admire Larry Scott for cutting it off.
If Texas can’t even make a concession to Texas A&M and Oklahoma, how could anyone think they would take orders from the suits in Walnut Creek?Texas thinks the world revolves around it, and in the Big XII it sort of does. Would UT want to come West and admit they are #2 in football to USC while all four California schools snort at their academics? And that’s before Oregon State comes asking for their 1/16 split of that Longhorn Network money. You’ll see the Dallas Cowboys move to Portland before you see Texas join the Pac-12.)
I know UCLA has better players. I know they have a win over SJSU while the Beavers lost to Sacramento State, but I’m picking the Beaves here and I have two good reasons. The first is coaching. OSU is coached by the Dean of Pac-12 coaches, Mike Riley. The Beavers may not be the pinnacle program of the Pac-12, but with Riley, they have incredible stability. Success may fluctuate, but Riley’s job is safe and the players know they are all in it for the long haul.
Rick Neuheisel may have a great coaching history, but he is already a lame-duck coach in Westwood. After last week’s pathetic showing against Texas in the Rose Bowl, it would take an incredible turnaround to keep Neuheisel in Westwood another year. The body language of the players does not indicate that is going to happen. This UCLA team is falling apart, and I don’t think they have what it takes to win in Reeser Stadium. And that brings me to the 2nd reason I see the Bruins losing this weekend. Corvallis doesn’t give the Bruins the same trouble it tends to give USC, but it is a tough place to play and with UCLA’s program in a tail spin, the fans will smell blood in the water. As bad as UCLA needs a win, the Beavers need one worse, and they’ll want it more. I expect that to show on the field this weekend.
WASHINGTON (2-1) over California (3-0) This is the most intriguing matchup of the weekend. Both teams have win over upper-tier WAC teams (Hawai’I and Fresno), but are yet to distinguish themselves. Cal won at Colorado in OT and blew out Presbyterian. Washington had a tough time with FCS power Eastern Washington and lost a 38-51 shootout at Nebraska.
Both these teams want to be the third team in the North Division, which should get them to a bowl. I’m taking Washington here because of home field advantage. The home team has won 4 of 5 in this series and Cal is 6-14 in their last twenty conference road games. Husky Stadium is a tough place to play. Expect it to tip the scales for the Dogs this weekend.
Oregon (2-1) over ARIZONA (1-2) Arizona fans will be drooling this weekend when they see the team that has perfected the rushing game the Cats so sorely lack. Oregon is 8th in the nation in rushing this season, averaging 261 yards per game. LaMichael James and Darron Thomas are both averaging 7.7 yards per carry this season.
Arizona has the 2nd best quarterback in the Pac-12 in Nick Foles, but a terribly unbalanced offense. The Cats are 5th in the nation in passing (364 ypg), and 116th in rushing (55.7 ypg). It’s very difficult to win with such an unbalanced attack. The Cats have scored only 24 points in their last two games combined in spite of rolling up a ton of yards. Both those games were against top 15 competition (Oklahoma State and Stanford), but Oregon is a legit top 15 team as well. The Ducks have won 20 of last 21 against the Pac-12 (counting a win over then MWC foe Utah), and is 14-3 against Arizona since ’94.
Much like the Wildcats looked better than their record most of last season with their toughest 4 games at the end of the schedule, the Cats are probably much better than their (soon to be) 1-3 record will show. But Oregon (and probably USC next week) are going to be too much for Arizona.