USC vs. Arizona State: Game Preview

The Trojans and Sun Devils have developed a one-sided rivalry of late, with the Trojans winning each of the last eleven contests. But this is a highly motivated Sun Devils squad, and one of the most talented teams in the country, led by a renegade linebacker who’s already spurned the Trojans once, infamously decommitting on Signing Day two years ago. A night game in Tempe on national television doesn’t get much better than this.

The Season up until this point…USC

Matt Barkley loves road games, and with a game time temperature expect to exceed 100 degrees, it doesn’t get more heated than Saturday night in Tempe.

The Trojans have had an interesting start to the season, opening up with three very different kinds of wins at home. The offense has shown glimmers of brilliance, and sputtered at times in the second half. Last week against Syracuse, SC finally put it all together on offense as Matt Barkley threw for five scores in a 38-17 win. Robert Woods has been Barkley’s favorite weapon, and through three games he leads the nation in catches, in addition to breaking Keyshawn Johnson’s record of catches over a three game stretch, with 33. While the return of Marc Tyler a week earlier proved a boost of moral against Utah, the running game struggled against Syracuse, and the absensce of Dillion Baxter has been a story throughout the season so far.

On the defense, the Trojans look a million times better than they did a year ago when they gave up 30 points six times, and were amongst the nation’s worst at defending the pass. The linebacker corps is much improved, with freshman linebackers Dion Bailey and Hayes Pullard playing like upperclassmen. Last week Bailey had nine tackles and a sack in just his second ever collegiate game. Torin Harris has made big plays on defense and special teams, looking like a perfect fit at corner across from Nickell Robey.

The Season up until this point…Arizona State

Brock Osweiler is a big kid, and the Trojans have had trouble replicating his the delivery from his 6’8″ frame all week in practice.

The Sun Devils came into the season with high expectations, only to fall victim to injuries. With a blowout win over UC Davis, and a nail biting overtime win over Missouri, they’ve shown that they can beatdown the opponents they should beatdown, and win the pressure-filled nail biters. The emergance of Brock Osweiler, Shiloh Winder’s favorite quarterback, is big boost for ASU, with the 6’8″ signal caller throwing six scores over three games to go with his 871 passing yards. He could be the most gut-checked ASU quarterback since Jake Plummer, and with an injury to running back Deantre Lewis, he IS the Sun Devil offense.

Defensively, the Sun Devils have been solid so far, despite being without two of their best players on defense, linebacker Brandon Magee and corner Omar Bolden, who are both lost for the season. Led by the next Ray Lewis/Jack Lambert, Vontaze Burfict, the Sun Devils held Illinois to just 240 yards and force three turnovers. It was a huge step forward after allowing Missouri’s James Franklin to have a career day a week before with 319 yards and two scores. Burfict has been the driving force, leading the conference in sacks with four, and recording 17 tackles over three games.  He had nine tackles a week ago, and if there’s anything concerning with Burfict, it’s that three of his four sacks came in the opener against UC Davis.

USC wins if…

…they can establish a running game to take the pressure off of Matt Barkley and Robert Woods. The Trojans took a step back last week in the rushing game, only really having success during garbage time. While it was a positive aspect for the Trojans at the time, killing the game off on the ground, the lack of a running game early on forced Barkley to throw. You can get away with that against Syracuse, but not against defenses like Arizona State’s, achored with Burfict. So if the Trojans can get the running game moving with Marc Tyler, Dillon Baxter and Curtis McNeal, the Trojans should be able to use the short passing game effectively, dinking and dunking to Woods, Grimble and Ellison. Defensively, if they can limit Osweiler’s vision with pressure off the edge from Nick Perry and Wes Horton, the Trojans’ speedy outside linebacker combo of Dion Bailey and Hayes Pullard should contain the Sun Devils, putting USC in a position to win.

Arizona State wins if…

…they can spread the Trojans defense wide, exploiting the middle of the field and going straight at the USC secondary. Syracuse was able to find holes in the SC defense for tight end Nick Provo, enabling the big man to have a career high eight catches.  The Sun Devils don’t have a tight end, but they have plenty of pass catchers (13 players have receptions so far). If they can get guys like Aaron Plugrad, Gerell Rovinson and Mike Willie the ball in the open field, it could be a long day for the Trojan defense. Defensively, the Sun Devils have to stop the run and force Barkley to throw, and contain Robert Woods as best as possible. Do all of those things, and they could waltz to their first ever Pac-12 victory.

Prediction

I’ve gone back and forth all week with this game. Until last week’s Sun Devil loss and Trojan rout, I thought Arizona State would be heavy, heavy favorites. A lot has changed in a week, and ASU has been notorious for being overrated over the past decade, close to turning the corner numerous times (2007 comes to mind), only to falter under pressure. So, here they are, in their coach’s fifth and telling season at the helm, with the quarterback with the most buzz since Jake Plummer, and they come into the game dinged up off of a loss. This’ll be the game that will truly define how good Arizona State is, and even at this point, I have no idea what to expect. But, I’ll give you this: Barkley will put up his numbers and the Trojans will get their points given the Sun Devils’ injury troubles on defense. Osweiler will have a national coming out party, giving the SC defense all they can handle, but it comes down to the depth of the offenses, where the Trojans have a strong advantage with playmakers at tailback and tight end. Monte Kiffin wins the game of adjustments, they stop Osweiler at the end, and Xavier Grimble plays huge role as the Trojans hold off the Sun Devils, winning an Old West shootout. USC 34, Arizona State 30

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