Optimistic Thoughts for the Bye Week

In the history of 4-1 NFL starts, the reaction of Charger fans has to be the most negative of any fan base in league history to such a winning start. Of course, reasons abound for the pessimism.

Charger fans simply do not trust Norv Turner. Since he has been head coach, so much talent seems to have gone to waste that most in town do not believe Turner is head coach material. This may be true. However, we are stuck with him at least through the end of the year, and he may just prove his doubters (myself included, admittedly) wrong with his best campaign yet.

When Turner replaced Marty Schottenheimer, he led the club to an 11-5 record. It was the first four weeks, though, that initially created the perception of Turner as a slow starter and underachiever. The team was 1-3 to start the season, and fans simply could not understand the wisdom of firing a 14-2 head coach for one who hadn’t achieved anything remarkable in his previous stints as head coach.

Turner started to change his perception in the playoff run that followed by reaching the AFC Championship Game. This was the most playoff success that had been seen since Bobby Ross took the Chargers to Super Bowl XXIX.

Fans were somewhat split on Turner at this point, as many attributed his team’s success to Schottenheimer.

The slow start to the following season gave the anti-Norv group more ammunition. The team started 3-5, including a loss to the Broncos at Denver in the now infamous Hochuli game. After the bye week, the team would continue to stumble until their record reached 4-8. An incredible reversal of fortune saw the AFC West leading Broncos drop three of their last four and the Bolts come up with victories in their last four games. Appropriately, the last of those four games was a home win against the Broncos. The Chargers finished 8-8 and became the first NFL team to start 4-8 and still make the playoffs.

In the playoffs, Darren Sproles rushed for two touchdowns and the Bolts upset Peyton Manning’s Indianapolis Colts on the road. The following game saw the Chargers head to Pittsburgh looking for another upset, but they could not get past the eventual Super Bowl Champion Steelers.

The next season was Turner’s best in the regular season, but worst in the playoffs to that point. The team started 2-3, but had an incredible finish as they ripped off 11 straight wins. 13-3 put the Chargers in a tie for the second best record in the NFL and gave them a bye week. In the divisional round, the Jets came to San Diego and scored twice in the fourth quarter to upset the Bolts. The result of this game left many Charger fans wondering why Norv was able to retain his job if Schottenheimer was fired for playoff ineptitude. It marked a sad end to the LaDainian Tomlinson era, and left Charger fans with no faith in regular season field goal extraordinaire Nate Kaeding .

2010 only served to reinforce negative perceptions of Turner as the team struggled mightily in multiple areas, specifically special teams. Despite leading the NFL in offense and defense, the team finished 9-7 and missed the playoffs for the first time in Turner’s tenure. Especially galling to Charger fans was that 13 straight wins against the Raiders evaporated and the Raiders took both meetings. This was not the only streak to end that season as the Chargers also lost the AFC West title to the Kansas City Chiefs after winning it four straight times.

If you look at one season after the next, it is easy to understand pessimism on the part of Charger fans. The Chargers under Turner have seemingly gotten worse every year. They won two playoff games, then one, then made it but didn’t win one, then missed completely.

This year is going to be different.

First, the matter of the Chargers four “easy” wins.

There is no such thing as an easy win in the NFL. Period. Yes, the Chargers have played less than stellar opponents closer than fans have cared to see, but they finished the games and won. You don’t get an asterisk next to your record if some of your wins were close.

Second, the Chargers have filled many holes that have plagued them in recent history.

The running game really fell off when LaDainian Tomlinson began to slow down, and eventually left for the Jets. Last year, Turner primarily used a combination of Mike Tolbert and Darren Sproles. Ryan Mathews was the team’s first round draft pick, but spent time out injured and never made an impact.

This year, Mathew’s has made a first round impact. Coming into the bye week, he has the seventh most rushing yards in the NFL. He’s averaging 4.9 yards a carry and has found the end zone three times. Best of all, after ball security issues plagued him last year, he has only one fumble in the first five games.

Combined with Mike Tolbert’s “bowling ball” counterpunch, the rushing attack is thriving this year, and the fact that the Bolts can run so well frees things up for Rivers in the passing game.

Defensively, it seems as though the team has been in need of an emotional leader for several seasons. Shawne Merriman set the tone for the defense in years past, but after his decline, nobody came across publicly as a true defensive leader. This is not to say that guys like Stephen Cooper didn’t leave their mark, but this year one face has emerged as a true leader. Takeo Spikes plays hard, hits hard, and leaves it all on the field every game. He has been to two Pro Bowls in a career that started in 1998, and his experience and passion make all the difference.  The defense has had to hold on late already this year to win games, and they certainly will need to do so again down the stretch. A leader like Spikes can be the difference between folding and getting the win.

On the draft front, the past several have been pretty underwhelming for the Chargers. Most of the players selected did not pan out long term, and many have already moved on from the Chargers. This year, first round selection Corey Liuget has already shown that he belongs in the NFL. He is able to create pressure and make life difficult for opposing quarterbacks. He should be a mainstay on the defensive line for years to come. Marcus Gilchrist has also shown an ability to play in the NFL. He allowed the Chargers to win in Denver by knocking away the potentially game winning pass for Denver. With Quentin Jammer getting up in years, Gilchrist will be relied upon more and more in the future.

Not only is this year’s draft class already making an impact, but some players from previous drafts are starting to show their potential too. Linebacker Donald Butler missed all of last year with an injury. This year he is playing regularly, and has a sack and an interception to his name so far. Often maligned 2009 first round selection Larry English came up big with two sacks against the Miami Dolphins.

Combine all the factors listed above with four wins in five games, and the Bolts are looking pretty good. The loss to the Patriots was discouraging, but the second place Raiders lost in an even more dramatic fashion at Foxboro.

Norv Turner’s teams have always improved down the stretch. They haven’t won four of five to start the year previously, so that’s a promising sign.

There is, of course, the issue of playoffs. Norv has taken heat for his diminishing post season returns, but he is hardly the first coach to struggle during that time of year. His predecessor certainly did. Perhaps he is not a good playoff coach, or perhaps playoff victories are just plain hard to get. Many fans have pointed to Bill Cowher as a potential replacement for Turner, but consider that he produced one Super Bowl victory in 15 years. If we are to use him as a measuring stick, Turner should be allowed the next ten seasons to give us a Super Bowl win.

All in all, it is impossible to say if this is the year for the San Diego Chargers. The only thing I know for sure is I have sat through too many subpar seasons to not enjoy 4-1. I am going to make a prediction that the Bolts will be 12-4 and have at least two playoff victories despite an increasingly tough schedule. I am going to swallow my criticisms of Norv Turner and just observe what happens. San Diego is a hard luck sports town, but I encourage Charger fans to drop the pessimism and enjoy what we have while it lasts. Hopefully that’s through February 5, 2012.