Pac-12 Power Poll (Redux)
It’s been two short weeks since I wrote my Pac-12 Power Poll and it already looks as dated as my mom’s cell phone. My #1 and #3 teams are a combined 1-3 since then and #12 just beat #6. Handily.
In all, there have been 12 Pac-12 games in the past two weeks, and the team ranked higher in my week 9 poll is a pedestrian 7-5. I wouldn’t have done much worse if I had just drawn straws. I feel a moral obligation to do try to make it right (and save some face) with a revised Power Poll after 11 weeks of action.
Here’s how it looks:
THE MIKE STOOPS DIVISION:
#13 ARIZONA 2-8 (1-7): SINCE WEEK 9: 0-2, CHANGE: -7
Two weeks ago I had the ‘Cats at #6 coming off a blowout of UCLA and hanging tough with Washington in Seattle. The Cats had found a running game and improved their defense. They had games against Utah and Colorado coming up. The firing of Screamin’ Bob Stoops had energized the team and they were going to make sure Nick Foles ended his career on a positive note.
Since then the Cats are 0-2 with humiliating losses to the Utes and Buffs. Utah and CU both came into their game with the Wildcats averaging only 16 points per conference game. But as has been the case all season in the Pac, the cure for what ails your offense is playing Arizona (unless you are UCLA, in that case I have no idea what cures your offense).
The Utes put up a season high 31 in Arizona Stadium, and Colorado put up a crazy 48 points. To put that in perspective, that was more than half the total the Buffs had scored in all their six previous Pac-12 games combined. Arizona is #117 in rushing and #110 in points allowed. It looks like the ‘Cats have packed it in for the season and it’s just as well. By the time November rolls around, basketball is eclipsing everything else in Tucson anyway.
#12 COLORADO 2-9 (1-6): SINCE WEEK 9: 1-1, CHANGE: +1
Not a ton new to say about Colorado. The day after the last power poll posted, they were throttled at home by a red-hot USC team. Colorado has had major health issues on defense, and against USC was even playing walk-on receivers at cornerback.
As was the case in early American history, the Buffalos were easy targets. And Lane Kiffin was all too happy to play the role of the stereotypical, greedy, shortsighted European settler.
Kiffin saw another opportunity to continue this season’s theme of setting passing records with meaningless performances and had Matt Barkley throwing long late into the blowout to get to the mark of 6 TDs in one game.
FIGHT ON!!!
No word on whether Kiffin was wearing one of those “You can’t sanction the endzone” T-Shirts under his USC jacket.
But the Buffs did post the aforementioned victory at Arizona avoiding a conference goose egg in their inaugural Pac-12 season and that moves them up a notch.
#11 ARIZONA STATE OUTSIDE OF SUNDEVIL STADIUM 1-4 (1-3):
SINCE WEEK 9: 0-2, CHANGE: N/A
Arizona State plays so different on the road than they do at home; I have to split them into two separate teams. The Devils are 5-0 at Sun Devil Stadium and 1-4
anywhere else. When they leave their friendly 110 degree confines and play in Earth-like climes, their points per game drops from 42 to 26, their defense gives up an extra touchdown per game, and their #1 ranked 3rd down defense at Sun Devil drops to #4.
Since the last Power Poll the Devils are 0-2. I don’t want to say the teams they lost to are bad, but after both games the coach of the opposing team celebrated by going home and taking the “For Sale” sign off his house.
And I don’t want to root, but if I have to hear Steve Hartman talk about how UCLA is still mathematically alive for the Pac-12 South for another week, I’m going to lose my mind. Please ASU, go home and win.
The good news is, the Sun Devils close with two games at home. The bad news is, if they win those games, they’ll play in the Pac-12 Championship game that currently looks to be held at Autzen Stadium where they lost by two touchdowns back in October.
#10 WASHINGTON STATE 2-8 (1-7): SINCE WEEK 9: 1-1, CHANGE: +1
It’s hard for me to imagine how an Arizona State team that allows an average of three TDs per game on defense could surrender 37 points to Washington State
starting a third string quarterback, but it’s actually not THAT crazy. Believe it or not, the beleaguered Washington State program that came into the season on a 2-25 streak in the Pac and has been forced to start three different quarterbacks this season is #9 nationally in passing yards per game. Read that last sentence again.
Paul Wulff’s system is putting up big numbers in Pullman. The Cougars don’t have a lot of wins this season but they put up 28 points on Oregon, and 37 points on A-State (your probable division champions), and 59 on UNLV (yeah, I know UNLV sucks, but even Wisconsin only put up 51 on the Rebs).
Cougars WR Marquess Wilson is easily the most under-discussed skill player in the Pac-12, if not the nation. Everyone in LA loves to rave about Robert Woods’ numbers. And they are impressive, but most football fans in the Southland would be surprised to learn that Wilson’s numbers are even better. Woods had built his numbers on an uncanny chemistry built over the years with three year starting QB Matt Barkley. Wilson has had three different starting QBs this season!
With two games left, Wilson already has 1200 receiving yards and averages an insane 18 yards per catch. Washington State’s matchup with Utah this weekend won’t get much national or even West Coast attention, but it features the Pac’s #2 passing offense versus one of the top passing defenses.
Utah’s D. leads the Pac in Interceptions and opposing QB rating. Defensive back is traditionally a strong position in Salt Lake City. It will be a fascinating matchup in Pullman this weekend with bowl eligibility on the line for both teams.
#9 OREGON STATE 2-8 (2-5): SINCE WEEK 9: 0-2, CHANGE: +1
Not a lot more to say about Oregon State. They lost to both Bay Area teams in the last two weeks, and they have Washington and Oregon coming up. They’re going to finish 2-10. But they beat Washington State and Arizona. So they didn’t finish last. Given the way things looked in September, that’s something.
THE BOB TOLEDO DIVISION
#8 UCLA 5-5 (4-3): SINCE WEEK 9: 1-1, CHANGE: -1
UCLA is as difficult a team to understand as I have ever watched. Look at their record. Look at it! We’re talking about a team that is 89thnationally in points
scored, and 92nd in points against. We’re talking about a team that just surrendered 31 points to Utah and lost by 36 points to Arizona.
This is the team that controls its own destiny in the Pac-12 South. This is the team that sits #2 in the standings to USC.
Watching UCLA on Saturday at Utah, it looked like Kevin Prince just joined the team last week and had never played with his receivers before. Utah’s defense is good, but Prince was only 12 of 24 with 2 INTs and on many of his passes seemed to have no idea what routes his receivers were running.
UCLA was dominated on both sides of the line of scrimmage by yet another mediocre team, yet every time I turn my back on this crew, they’re sneaking off with some victory. And they have Colorado coming to the Rose Bowl this weekend! They’re going to win again! Make it stop!
By now we all know the score. UCLA will win the Pac-12 South if they finish 2-0.
That would require a victory in the Rose Bowl over a Colorado team that has not won outside the state of Colorado since 2007 and win over USC. We all know UCLA is finishing 1-1. We all know ASU is great at home and will finish 2-0, but until then, we have to hear the Hartmans talk about it.
As we used to say to the Bruins in the USC student section at the end of blowouts, “Hurry up and lose”.
#7 UTAH 6-4 (3-4): SINCE WEEK 9: 2-0, CHANGE: +2
We all knew the take on the Utes schedule this season “It’s easy because they don’t play Oregon or Stanford”. It’s true. The Utes are the only team to avoid the Pac’s two best teams, but there was another quirk to the Utes conference schedule this season. It was extremely front-loaded.
People judged Utah early when they lost games on their “easy schedule”. But in fact, the first half of Utah’s schedule wasn’t easy at all. They opened Pac-12 play with a tough @USC, v. Washington, v. ASU, @ Cal stretch with non-conference games @BYU and @Pitt thrown in-between. The Utes lost starting QB Jordan Wynn during this run and their offense took a major hit that it really never recovered from.
The Utes are #102 nationally in passing yards, and even in their 31-6 romp over UCLA on Saturday, barely went over 100 yards passing. But that is not to say Utah’s offense is not getting better. In the 3 losses after Wynn’s injury (Washington, ASU and Cal) Utah turned the ball over a combined 14 times with inexperienced Jon Hays starting under center.
In three games since then Utah has only 2 giveaways and 1st year Offensive Coordinator Norm Chow has been finding ways to keep Hays comfortable and get the most out of the team’s running game.
Diminutive Harbor JC transfer John White IV outran UCLA’s vaunted duo of Jonathan Franklin and Derrick Coleman himself on Saturday, 167 yards to 132. The third time in the last five games that White has topped 160 yards.
Utah’s defense has remained stout despite the instability of the offense, and is #1 in the Pac in scoring defense, #1 in interceptions, and #1 in yards per play.
Utah is officially bowl eligible now with six wins, and with wins over Washington State and Colorado in their last two games, the Utes could finish with a winning record in their first season in the Pac-12.
#6 CAL 6-4 (3-4): SINCE WEEK 9: 2-0, CHANGE: +2
Cal is an awful lot like Utah. The Bears are #1 in the Pac in total defense and have overcome awful quarterback play scrape together a passable offense.
Much like Utah they are getting over their turnover problems, and with a great defense are putting up enough points to beat teams like Oregon State.
However, Cal still has Stanford and a trip to Sun Devil Stadium coming up. So while the Utes look to finish 2-0. Cal is likely looking at an 0-2.
THE DENNIS ERICKSON DIVISION
#5 WASHINGTON 6-4 (4-3): SINCE WEEK 9: 0-2, CHANGE: NONE
Even after 2 strait losses, I’ll go Denny Green on the Dawgs and remind everyone, “They are WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE!!!” And I’m gonna let the Huskies off the hook for losing to two teams who I figured would beat them.
The USC loss was surprisingly lop-sided and UW may not be the same without Keith Price at quarterback, but I still think they’re the 5th best team in the Pac.
#4 USC 8-2 (5-2): SINCE WEEK 9: 2-0, CHANGE: NONE
USC has been down for a couple of years under the NCAA Sanctions, but since they flew to South Bend in late October the Trojans have actually looked as good as USC fans always say they are. USC came back from Indiana to give Stanford all they wanted and then humiliated Colorado and Washington.
The Trojans have climbed back into the AP Poll and the Trojan family is fully convinced USC can win in Eugene this weekend.
But what does it all mean? USC can’t play in the post-season this year, and likely wouldn’t qualify for the Pac-12 Championship game even if they could play in it.
You could say that the Trojans are building some momentum for next year, but that only seems plausible if Matt Barkley, TJ McDonald and Khaled Holmes return. Nick Perry and Wes Horton could also leave USC for the NFL after this season as well.
If USC is breaking in a new QB, trying to re-load on defense and has an inexperienced offensive line, next season could be back to the drawing board for Lane Kiffin. And at USC next season is really all that matters.
#3 ARIZONA STATE AT HOME 5-0 (3-0): SINCE WEEK 9: 0-0, CHANGE: N/A
Yeah, yeah, yeah. I’ve seen what happened to ASU the last two weeks. I’ve seen USC heating up. And you know what? I don’t care. ASU has been lousy on the road all season. Why would I expect that to change now?
ASU and USC played. I looked up the score. It’s still 43-22. It didn’t change. Barkley still had more interceptions than 3rd down conversions, and USC still had more penalty yards than the “dirty” Sun Devils.
None of that changed.
So yes, ASU is bad on the road, but that doesn’t matter because they are great at home and that’s where their only remaining games are. The Devils will finish 2-0 and win the Pac-12 South. Until that changes, they remain the top ranked team in the South Division.
THE JIM HARBAUGH DIVISION
#2 STANFORD 9-1 (7-1): SINCE WEEK 9: 1-1, CHANGE: -1
#1 OREGON 9-1 (7-0): SINCE WEEK 9: 2-0, CHANGE: +1
A big congratulations to the Oregon Ducks for proving me wrong. I picked Stanford to win the Pac-12 at the beginning of the season. Though it is still could happen, it seems nearly impossible after Oregon’s convincing win in Palo Alto on Saturday.
Looking back, I guess we should have seen this coming. Oregon proved against ASU could whip-up on an excellent defense even without Darron Thomas and
LaMichael James.
Stanford showed against USC its methodical style was beatable against athletic defensive backs and a stout defensive front.
On Saturday Oregon had Thomas and James back, while Stanford was missing top WR Chris Owusu and one of their three-headed tight end beast, Zach Ertz.
On a day when both offenses made some mistakes, Oregon proved to be the more opportunistic team. And just like last year, a close halftime score (24-16) turned into a route in the 2nd half as the Cardinal defense tired and the Ducks offense progressively gained momentum.
Auburn and LSU have proven that, given over a month to prepare, a good defense can stifle Oregon’s attack. After losing convincingly to LSU in the opener, Oregon won’t get another chance in January. Meaning the Cardinal’s loss on Saturday ended the Pac-12’s hope of a representative in the BCS Title game.
Oregon finishes with USC and Oregon State. Unless they lose them both, they’ll host the Pac-12 Championship game the first weekend in December and look to be heading to their 2nd Rose Bowl in three years.
It’s almost impossible to prepare for the Ducks in they typical 4 days between games, but it’s hard not to notice how vulnerable Oregon has been against top-flight teams who have a month to prepare. The Ducks are known for winning with big points but scored only 17 in the Rose Bowl two years ago, 19 v. Auburn last year and a pedestrian 27 this season against LSU.
Given that the Big 10 Champ has a month to prepare for the Rose Bowl, is the Pac doomed to lose the big game as long as Oregon is its best team? After the three-year run they’ve had, you hate to say anything bad about the Ducks, but for the Pac-12’s sake, you have to hope they learn to put up in bowl games or become eclipsed by another Pac-12 power.