Los Angeles Angels: Garrett Richards Out Six to Nine Months

Aug 20, 2014; Boston, MA, USA; Los Angeles Angels starting pitcher Garrett Richards (43) is taken off the field on a stretcher during the second inning of a game against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports

Just when the Los Angeles Angels were getting red hot again, one of the worst possible things that could happen happened–Garrett Richards covered first base on a ground ball to first baseman Albert Pujols, and while feeling out with his foot for the base, Richards got his spikes caught in the dirt…the result was a tumble that caused Richards to fall directly on his left knee, and roll over in excruciating pain. Richards was removed from the field via stretcher.

The injury: a  torn left patella tendon, requiring surgery.

Timetable for recovery: 6 months to 9 months, depending on the rehab process.

Best case scenario: back for Spring Training 2015.

Worst case scenario: out until May 2015, and the Angels possibly missing the playoffs this season as a result of losing their ace.

This is a devastating blow. The Halos were on fire again, and still are. But it’s always scary when a team loses their best starting pitcher.

Is there a reason to panic? Of course. The knee-jerk reaction is to have one’s heart sink through one’s feet and into the ground. Mine did.

But then when I got a grip on myself, I looked at the numbers. The Angels are about on par with the A’s in terms of pitching since the beginning of June. The main reason the Halos are still only sixth in the AL in team ERA is the opening three-game series where they were destroyed by the Seattle Mariners. The staff gave up 26 runs in 27 innings, and have been mostly effective, consistent, and at times dominant, ever since then.

Team ERA since May 1: 3.58

Team ERA since June 1: 3.42

Team ERA since July 1: 3.16

Granted, Richards’ ERA was part of that equation. But a much deeper bullpen than when coming into the season has made the biggest impact on the team’s ERA. A 1.69 ERA in July transformed the Halos pitching into a juggernaut in the later innings. In August, Angels relievers sit at 2.88. So the staff isn’t totally dependent on Garrett Richards to be effective enough to compete for and in the playoffs.

If you follow WAR statistics (i.e. wins above replacement), Richards had 4.5 WAR. That adds up to exactly one win per month added over a replacement-level starting pitcher. So doing the math, one can argue that the Angels are only losing barely under one and half wins off their overall record had Richards stayed healthy through September. That means a 97 win team becomes a 95 to 96 win team since the team’s ace will be missing for six weeks instead of six months.

Then there’s the team’s record when Richards starts.

Team record when Richards starts: 19-7.

Team record with other starters: 56-43

That’s still not a bad record at all without Richards in there. And much of that record is due to having a thin bullpen through late June. Again, it’s the bullpen that’s the bigger issue here when debating whether or not the Angels can overcome this.

They can. And they will. Manager Mike Scioscia and others in the clubhouse have dealt with much worse, and still made the playoffs. The team took off with Josh Hamilton and Kole Calhoun missing significant time. Where would the team be if those two were healthy all that time? The Halos were red hot despite Mike Trout‘s miserable slump in June. Despite Albert Pujols slumping in May, the club started a long dominant run. This team has the personnel and the resilience to get through this. This is a tough team.

Then, there’s the waiver wire. There are some options out there. Bartolo Colon is one. There are also internal options who can step up. Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson are perfectly capable of finding an extra gear. Matt Shoemaker actually has provided a starting pitching surplus; and that’s another reason I don’t think this injury is catastrophic enough to take the club out of the hunt. Hector Santiago has finally developed into the starting pitcher the Angels hoped for at his stage in his career, simply by having a deeper bullpen to keep Scioscia from having to stretch him.

Again, there’s that bullpen.

This injury also makes me wonder what is going on with the Baseball Gods. There are too many good young pitchers going down. Pretty soon enough pitchers will be lost to where there is no longer enough pitching and we regress right back into another offense-heavy era like the Steroid Era. Richards was one of the bright young stars in the game this season. It’s a shame (ridiculous) for a pitcher like him to suddenly go down like that. For what it’s worth, at least it’s not a shoulder or elbow injury, and just a freak knee injury that shouldn’t have any longterm implications if Richards doesn’t suffer any setbacks in rehab.

The Angels can overcome it though. They just have to do it. I think they will. And I think more than anything it will come down to their offense, defense, and… their bullpen.