Los Angeles Angels: 2015 Season Preview

Sep 17, 2014; Anaheim, CA, USA; Los Angeles Angels players celebrate after winning the American League West Division title against the Seattle Mariners at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

2014 Recap

The wait was finally over. A four-year hiatus from the postseason was finally ended with the Angels defying the critics with a 98-64 record, the best in baseball. The Halos led the Majors in wins, runs, and in Mike Trouts. There should be a special category for statistics solely related to Mike Trout. And he’s back again. This time, he’s intent on being aggressive, which may spell further doom for all of Major League Baseball. However, he’s not the only Angel that can defend the club’s 2014 American League West Division Title. Around him, is a possible Bill James case study of how to build a winning team, year in and year out. But let’s start with the approach.

Offseason

After two offseasons of major splashes, General Manager Jerry Dipoto dug into his back of tricks, and brought his philosophy of on-base ability and organizational depth to the fore front. He believes in the Bill James idea that if you have a league average or better player at every position, you’re going to have a winning team every season. To achieve this, Dipoto made smaller moves that helped plug holes at key positions, as well as add young, cost controlled starting pitching that eluded the team in 2012 and 2013. Having a farm system ranked at or near dead last in the Majors, Dipoto created depth by making interesting trades that now have the Halos fielding a deep roster.

What the Angels have done is basically demonstrate how an organization can get around having a minor league system that is thin on impact players. They now have a sizable list of Major League-ready talent they can call upon for help all up and down their 40-man roster. But instead of going ‘blah, blah, blah’ over it, let’s take a closer look at how this is shaping up for the Angels in 2015.

Each section will feature an overall analysis, followed by a list of players on the roster in that section, with their three year 162 game averages used as projections for the 2015 season. I figure this approach will help fans gain a full understanding of how good this team really is.

I believe this Angels club is a 100 win club, or at least 95-plus. And I’m going to make my case. So without further ado, here it my 2015 season preview of the Los Angeles Angels:

Legend

One more thing before we get into it: The projections for each player will be based on their three-year 162 game averages. Position players will have their slash line (BA/OBP/SLG) followed by their homeruns, RBI, and OPS+ averages. Starting pitchers will have their ERA, FIP, WHIP, W-L, and ERA+. Relievers will have ERA, FIP, WHIP, and ERA+. Closers will have saves added. Any player with less than three years experience, as well as those with too small a sample size, will just have an estimated projection. Asterisk* indicates in-season call-ups and players returning from injury. Here we go:

Live Feed

3 starting pitchers the Angels should target after losing Shohei Ohtani /

Halo Hangout

Angels plan B after losing Shohei Ohtani is a slap to the faces of the fansHalo Hangout

Dodgers gave a unique contractual promise to Shohei OhtaniFanSided

Angels owner pinching pennies with coaching staff is latest embarrassing blunderHalo Hangout

3 players the Angels should trade to kickstart the post-Ohtani rebuildHalo Hangout

Former Angels catcher finds new home in under-the-radar tradeHalo Hangout

Starting Lineup

On the Effectively Wild Podcast at Baseball Prospectus, Ben Lindbergh pointed out that he and Sam Miller (these two are the hosts) had talked at one point about the Angels having the best offense in baseball. That may be true.

To back that up, last season all nine regulars in the Angels’ starting lineup had an OPS+ over 100. Not only that, seven of the nine will be returning, with a couple of additions. And of those additions, Matt Joyce will likely sport an OPS+ well over 100, while one of Josh Hamilton’s replacements (Collin Cowgill) also had an OPS+ over 100 coming off the bench, with a good sample size.

Here is the Opening Day starting lineup:

RF Kole Calhoun: .271 / .329 / .446 / 20 HR / 72 RBI / 120 OPS+

CF Mike Trout: .311 / .403 / .561 / 34 HR / 105 RBI / 172 OPS+

1B Albert Pujols: .273 / .332 / .478 / 30 HR / 108 RBI / 128 OPS+

LF Matt Joyce: .243 / .339 / .410 / 18 HR / 64 RBI / 111 OPS+

3B David Freese: .272 / .345 / .412 / 16 HR / 76 RBI / 111 OPS+

SS Erick Aybar: .280 / .316 / .391 / 8 HR / 63 RBI / 101 OPS+

DH C.J. Cron: .265 / .321 / .491 / 23 HR / 76 RBI / 115 OPS+

C Chris Iannetta: .238 / .357 / .386 / 15 HR / 58 RBI / 113 OPS+

2B Johnny Giavotella: .232 / .281 / .305 / 5 HR / 50 RBI / 61 OPS+

The only major hole might be second base. However, the Angels have several options there, and could even use what they have right now to audition for an upgrade by the trade deadline. Other than that, this is possibly the most well balanced lineup in the Majors.

Bench

Despite analysts concluding that the Angels had little bench depth going into the offseason, the club was able to absorb the injuries and struggles of Josh Hamilton quite well. Cowgill, along with guys like Efren Navarro, managed to hold the fort whenever needed. The reserves weren’t spectacular, but they did enough to add production whenever called upon. And now the Halos have worked hard both this past offseason and in Spring Training at creating several options for Manager Mike Scioscia to work with in 2015. So here is the bench:

C Drew Butera: .179 / .240 / .261 / 2 HR / 10 RBI / 40 OPS+

IF Taylor Featherston: .276 / .336 / .387 / 2 HR / 7 RBI / 112 OPS+

IF Efren Navarro: .263 / .320 / .371 / 4 HR / 27 RBI / 108 OPS+

OF Collin Cowgill: .242 / .307 / .345 / 6 HR / 32 RBI / 95 OPS+

C Jett Bandy: .220 / .301 / .336 / 1 HR / 4 RBI / 79 OPS+

C Carlos Perez*: .220 / .301 / .326 / 1 HR / 9 RBI / 83 OPS+

IF Grant Green*: .265 / .312 / .341 / 2 HR / 15 RBI / 96 OPS+

IF Kyle Kubitza*: .279 / .361 / .410 / 5 HR / 23 RBI / 120 OPS+

IF Josh Rutledge*: .241 / .289 / .296 / 0 HR / 5 RBI / 82 OPS+

OF Josh Hamilton*: .266 / .330 / .483 / 13 HR / 52 RBI / 110 OPS+

OF Dan Robertson*: .275 / .329 /.341 / 2 HR / 10 RBI / 107 OPS+

This is a young bench that could either begin to prove themselves productive enough to fight for key roles, or the Halos starters will have to rely a lot on staying healthy. Chances are that guys like Green, Navarro, Robertson, Cowgill, and even Hamilton will provide enough extra production as role players later in the season.

Even with sub par production, Hamilton’s OBP will still likely be above average, which is what you at least to have from any bench role to help further your offense’s overall production.

And from the looks of the minor league numbers from Perez and Kubitza, the Halos may be getting some added on base ability on their bench later in the season.

The Angels are well-known for producing good role players, and there is plenty of reason to believe their reserves can do the job.

Starting Rotation

Going into last season, I pushed back at the critics of the Angels’ starting rotation. I wasn’t claiming they’d be a dominant force. I simply stated that they were going to be good enough to help win the Halos the division.

After much analyzation, and calculation, I came up with a 3.67 ERA for the Angels starting rotation in 2014. This was actually the cumulative ERA of all five Angels starters on Opening Day, in 2013. And that included the 5.12 ERA from Tyler Skaggs in his brief sample size with the Arizona Diamondbacks. It also included Hector Santiago’s numbers as a starter with the White Sox, as well as the jump in Jered Weaver’s ERA.

3.67. And the Halos starting rotation in 2014 ended up with an ERA of

Not only that, as mentioned before the Angels have a deeper rotation from trades they made in the offseason. This will definitely help them to counter injuries and/or struggles.

So how about we take a closer look at the rotation:

Jered Weaver: 3.24 / 3.94 / 1.12 / 17-8 / 115 ERA+

C.J. Wilson: 3.87 / 3.93 / 1.37 / 12-11 / 97 ERA+

Garrett Richards: 3.39 / 3.57 / 1.02 / 16-9 / 145 ERA+

Matt Shoemaker: 3.41 / 3.62 / 1.10 / 15-7 / 132 ERA+

Hector Santiago: 3.65 / 4.12 / 1.27 / 11-10 / 101 ERA+

Andrew Heaney*: 3.79 / 3.87 / 1.20 / 5-3 / 112 ERA+

Nick Tropeano*: 4.71 / 4.29 / 1.42 / 2-3 / 89 ERA+

This is a serviceable rotation. At best they are very good. On average, they are enough to buy the offense time to score enough runs, and for the bullpen to shut teams down late and put them away. There could be dominance here. But there could also be above average production. Either way, they’re not Washington Nationals deep; however, it’s a good enough, and just deep enough rotation to help the Halos defend their division title.

Bullpen

Before we get into this, I want to point something out: Huston Street, Joe Smith, Sean Burnett, Joe Thatcher, Jason Grilli. Could you imagine if all five of these relievers were healthy and in the Angels bullpen the entire 2014 season? That’s an All-Star bullpen for the ages. Of course, if Burnett was healthy they likely would not have acquired Thatcher. Thatcher is also gone, and so is Grilli. And that leaves Smith and Street.

So here’s a better question: What if Smith and Street were the Angels’ eighth/ninth inning combo the entire 2014 season?

This team would’ve won about 105 games. On the day the Halos acquired Huston Street, they were leading the Majors in ninth inning runs allowed. Every other inning besides the sixth inning, they were one of the better teams at preventing runs. Shocking? Not really when you dig deeper into the splits.

If you were to replace Ernesto Frieri’s numbers with Huston Street’s numbers with the Padres before coming to the Angels, you get vastly different season totals. The Angels would jump from seventh in the AL in ERA… to second. That’s right.

Consider this: The pitching staff the Angels fielded going into the American League Division Series had only one pitcher with an ERA over 4.00, and that was C.J. Wilson. In fact, the entire staff only had two pitchers with ERA’s over 3.50! The entire bullpen had ERA’s under 3.50.

Granted, Vinnie Pestano had a small sample size. But in looking at the mainstays in the Angels bullpen going into October, Brian Kenny greatly ignored this bullpen when he was raving about the Kansas City Royals’ relievers. Rather convenient though; it was the hot topic any way. So whatever, Brian.

Back to business. Here’s the bullpen:

Huston Street: 1.97 / 3.42 / 0.91 / 42 SV / 178 ERA+

Joe Smith: 2.33 / 3.29 / 1.05 / 162 ERA+

Mike Morin: 2.71 / 2.93 / 1.17 / 143 ERA+

Cesar Ramos: 3.60 / 3.87 / 1.27 / 112 ERA+

Fernando Salas: 3.96 / 3.33 / 1.23 / 95 ERA+

Drew Rucinski: 3.52 / 3.71 / 1.24 / 110 ERA+

Jose Alvarez: 3.79 / 4.12 / 1.32 / 97 ERA+

Cam Bedrosian*: 4.49 / 3.78 / 1.41 / 82 ERA+

Jeremy McBryde*: 4.71 / 4.53 / 1.43 / 79 ERA+

Cory Rasmus*: 3.27 / 3.61 / 1.12 / 139 ERA+

Danny Reynolds*: 5.32 / 4.29 / 1.53 / 71 ERA+

Tyler Skaggs* is still on the 40-man roster. Very likely he will not pitch in 2015.

Much like the bench, this is a young bullpen. These relievers, however, are anchored by elite veterans at the back end. And that’s all they need. There are some good arms here that when put in the right role, will shut teams down late all season long.

One example would be Salas. He’s not very good at holding inherited runners. But if you put him in a role where he only comes in to start innings, he’s almost unhittable.

There are also questions about Street repeating his 2014 performance. Well, the numbers I listed for him are his 162 game averages for the last three years.

The Halos also have a few young pitchers with some promise, who could be valuable in middle relief later in the season. Or, they could be used as trade bait to get another Joe Smith-type. That would be deadly.

This is a much deeper bullpen than the Angels had from 2009 through the first half of last season. And perhaps even deeper than what they had in the second half of last season. One big key I think is Morin. If he continues his dominance he showed (for the most part) last season, and he locks down the seventh inning, forget it. It’s a 6 inning game from there on, if even that. Along with their offense, look for this bullpen to carry the club.

Injury Report

For the most part, the club is healthy. Garrett Richards is progressing nicely, and will likely be ready for the starting rotation’s third go-around. Matt Joyce had some lingering issues, but he’s gotten through them and is ready. Hamilton will continue his recovery as scheduled, without suspension. And that brings up a key issue.

The Josh Hamilton Situation

As much as I’d like for this to go away, it is what it is. And on the field it’s a situation that can easily be replaced by a platoon in left field between Matt Joyce and Collin Cowgill. Hamilton will not be suspended, and he will return to the Angels’ lineup after he’s finished rehabbing his shoulder. Or will he? Turns out, he may play a reduced role when he’s back in the Angels’ dugout. Well, there’s a chance to redeem himself. And I believe he can do it. But until then, Matt Joyce and Collin Cowgirl combined for a higher OBP, as well as roughly the same number of extra base hits as Josh Hamilton in 2014. So that was covered a long time ago. The question then becomes: What will Josh Hamilton’s role actually be in 2015? We’ll just have to wait and see. I’m pulling for him to get his life together, but I am firm in my stance that he has run out of chances. And if the aforementioned platoon can do just as good a job, then Josh Hamilton better step up to the plate, no pun intended.

Finances

What was previously thought as a cushion for in-season additions is now an after thought. Josh Hamilton will be paid his full salary. And now the Angels have less financial flexibility than they would have if Hamilton was indeed suspended. That’s not to say they won’t be able to make any moves by the trade deadline. They just won’t be able to make as a big a splash as originally perceived. But of course, the whole point of this article is to assess if they would even need any of those ‘in-season additions’. The season will have to tell us that much.

Overall Outlook

As mentioned before, this is a 100 win team. At the high-end. It’s also a 92 win team, should certain starting pitchers not repeat performances, and/or if there are major injuries that almost cripple this team like in 2004. That’s basically what this team is. It’s the 2004 Angels at (or close to) full strength. That was a 100 win team that was reduced to a 92 win team because of several major injuries. That team, however, did still win the division. And from the looks of what I see as a division that is mostly in transition, it may only take 92 wins (if even that) to win this division again. Or, the Angels can just run away with it again. I can see that happening. But I can also see them having to grind it out. In any case, this is the first Angels team that I’ve been certain will be a playoff contender since 2009. And if all goes well with their youngest players, we could see another playoff run similar to 2002 through 2009. And this time around, the Angels have Mike Trout. Because of him alone, it just seems fitting.

Have fun in 2015 Angels fans!

Home/Los Angeles Angels