Los Angeles Dodgers: Three reasons why the Dodgers will win the West
By Jason Reed
2. The Colorado Rockies are not as good as the record indicates
Let me preface this slide of the article for any Rockies’ fans out there reading this. Colorado is definitely talented. With the likes of Nolan Arenado, DJ LeMahieu, Charlie Blackmon and Trevor Story it is hard to say that the Rockies lack talent.
However, the Rockies have also been fairly lucky in a lot of instances this season and are not as good as the record shows.
Just take Baseball-Reference’s Pythagorean win-loss for example. The Pythagorean win-loss calculates what a team’s record should be based on run differential. The Rockies, who have a negative run differential, should be at 66-69 according to this. Meanwhile, the Dodgers should be 82-54.
Granted, that is not how MLB standings work but it can be telling who is a contender and a pretender when it comes down to it in September. A perfect example of this is the 2016 Texas Rangers, who won the AL West with 95 wins.
The Rangers had a run differential of +9 at season’s end, and according to the Pythagorean win-loss, should have been an 82-80 team. While the team still made the playoffs, the Rangers were swept by the Toronto Blue Jays in the ALDS.
At the end of the day, all that matters is how high the number is in the win column. Right now, the Rockies are right up there with the Dodgers and Diamondbacks. However, as the pressure builds, Colorado becomes the team most likely to snap.