4. Hyun-Jin Ryu rejects qualifying offer, signs a three-year deal
I did not know where to group the Hyun-Jin Ryu aspect in, I thought about grouping it with Yasmani Grandal but I wanted to save it until now. While there is a decent chance that Ryu accepts the qualifying offer, I would like to see him reject it in order to work out a multi-year deal with the Dodgers.
This is the best-case scenario. If I had to choose between signing a superstar or getting just one more year of Ryu with the qualifying offer, I would pick the superstar every day of the week. However, in my perfect little bubble, I would like to see Ryu return to LA on a three-year deal.
This would take some maneuvering with the contract. In a perfect world, Ryu would take a contract that is backloaded and keeps the Dodgers flexible this winter. Rich Hill is in the last year of his contract and is owed $18.66 million this season. The Dodgers could afford to pay Ryu less this year and load his contract in the last two years.
I also think it should be heavily based on incentives, which could lead to Ryu not wanting to sign in Los Angeles. A baseline of three years, $40 million ($12 million in year one, $14 million in years two and three) with a ceiling of three years, $51 million, makes sense.
If Ryu still struggles with his health a $12-14 million contract won’t kill the team. If he puts together an all-star caliber season, he would be worth the $17 million the incentives move it towards.
He would be taking a pay cut this season either way but would get the comfort of a long-term deal.
New projected payroll: $159 million