The Los Angeles Dodgers shouldn’t trade for Josh Hader, period
By Jason Reed
The Los Angeles Dodgers are reportedly embroiled in trade talks with the Boston Red Sox and could look to add one of the game’s best relievers as well.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have not yet done anything significant this offseason but based on the reports that we have been hearing, it appears as something big is on the horizon. The most talked-about move being a trade with the Boston Red Sox for Mookie Betts, which was first reported as a possibility by Bob Nightengale of USA Today.
Another interesting dynamic that emerged on Tuesday as well is the possibility of Josh Hader being traded to the Dodgers. The Hader talk is nowhere close to as serious as the Betts talk, but it is an interesting dynamic that has been raised.
The conversation began with Jon Heyman speculating that if the Dodgers and Brewers were to get a deal done for Hader that it would be around top prospect Gavin Lux, who is a native of Kenosha Wisconsin, which is 40 miles south of Milwaukee.
Gavin Lux is the most coveted Dodgers player in trade talks. Don’t you think the Brewers, with their unsettled infield, would want the Kenosha, Wis. product in a potential Hader deal? However, belief so far of many is that the Dodgers wouldn’t trade Lux “in any scenario.”
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) December 17, 2019
The Brewers seem keen on trading Hader and the Dodgers are naturally a good fit on paper as the team underwent some bullpen struggles last season and Hader is one of the biggest names in the books.
However, the idea of trading Lux for Hader was rejected almost immediately by most Dodger fans because of Lux’s high ceiling. It goes further than that, though, as the Dodgers should not trade for Hader at any cost.
Of course, if the team can get Hader for an extremely low price that does not affect the team’s ability to trade for Betts then they would take it, but the chances of that happening are low.
The reasoning behind this is the fact that relievers simply do not have a long prime at the MLB level. Time and time again we see these elite relievers fall off either naturally or after being traded. Just look at how quickly Kenley Jansen went from literally unhittable to unreliable.
Hader has been great the last two seasons, but he did show some beginning signs last season, despite having a great year. Hader’s 2.62 ERA was not concerning at all but his 15 home runs allowed in 75 and two-thirds innings were. Hader looked much more human in 2019 than he did in 2018.
Hader is showing the preliminary signs that are troubling Jansen right now. Jansen can still get guys out, the problem is that when batters hit Jansen they tee off on him. The same can be said for Hader.
Hader went from being in the 77th percentile in hard-hit percentage and 84th percentage in exit velocity to being in the eight and fourth percentile, respectively.
That is a massive drop off. Hader gets hit harder, when he gets hit, than nine out of 10 MLB pitchers. Even in 2018, his numbers were a bit misleading as he had a high barrel percentage. He was in the bottom two percent of the league in 2018 with a 10.6 barrel percentage and in the bottom one percent with a 12.6 barrel percentage in 2019.
Those are not great numbers for a guy that is going to take at least one top-100 prospect and at least two more top-30 prospects in the Los Angeles Dodgers’ system. He is well on the right side of 30, so he has that going for him, but we still see these relievers fall off time and time again.
Look at Andrew Miller, Brad Hand, Jeurys Familia and Edwin Diaz. These are all pitchers that were recently elite out of the bullpen and now are not even worth two top-30 prospects, let alone a top-100 prospect and two more top-30s in the organization.
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There are troubling signs from Hader, which is probably part of the reason why he is in trade rumors despite having four more seasons of team control. The Los Angeles Dodgers should not take the bait, let someone else do that.