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Every Potential Rams Wild Card Opponent Ranked from Easiest to Hardest Matchup

Who will the Rams play in the first round of the NFL Playoffs? And who shoudl fans want them to play? Looking at all four of their potential opponents.

By Jason Schandl

Detroit Lions linebacker Alex Anzalone tackles L.A. Rams running back Kyren Williams during the first half of the NFC wild-card game at Ford Field in Detroit on Sunday, Jan, 14, 2024.
Detroit Lions linebacker Alex Anzalone tackles L.A. Rams running back Kyren Williams during the first half of the NFC wild-card game at Ford Field in Detroit on Sunday, Jan, 14, 2024. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK
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The Los Angeles Rams have clinched the NFC West, so fans won't need to sweat out the result of Sunday's game against the Seattle Seahawks. But that doesn't mean the NFC playoff picture, or even the Rams' place in it, is nearly set.

The seeding for the Rams themselves is fairly simple: they can't overtake the winner of the NFC West (either the Detroit Lions or Minnesota Vikings) or winner of the NFC East (Philadelphia Eagles). That leaves them locked in to either the No. 3 or No. 4 seed. The Rams lose and the Buccaneers win, then L.A. will be No. 4. Any other scenario leaves them No. 3.

That also means we can significantly narrow down the list of possible opponents for the Rams. Since the No. 3 seed faces the No. 6 seed and the No. 4 seed faces the No. 5 seed on Wild Card Weekend, the scenarios are relatively easy to parse through. So here's a look at the Rams' most likely opponents, plus a look at how easy (or hard) each of those matchups will be.

Who Will the Rams Face in the Playoffs?

The Rams' four potential Wild Card Round opponents are the Minnesota Vikings, Detroit Lions, Washington Commanders and Green Bay Packers. Using the implied probabilities from FanDuel Sportsbook's odds for the week, we can calculate the likelihood of each scenario. First off, the Rams' seeding:

  • No. 3 seed: 37.63%
  • No. 4 seed: 62.47%

And combining those with the other teams' seeding probabilities, we get the following probabilities for each opponent:

  • Lions: 36.38%
  • Commanders: 28.88%
  • Vikings: 26.09%
  • Packers: 8.75%

But which matchup should Rams fans want to see?

Ranking the Rams' Potential First-Round Playoff Opponents, Easiest to Hardest

4. Washington Commanders

This is the scenario Rams fans will be hoping for, and fortunately it's also one of the most likely. It's also the Rams' biggest incentive to win on Sunday — if L.A. wins their chances of playing the Commanders jump to 76.7%.

The Commanders are on a four-game winning streak, but beating the Tennessee Titans, New Orleans Saints, Philadelphia Eagles with Jalen Hurts injured and Atlanta Falcons in overtime isn't exactly a formidable run. In fact, unless the Falcons squeak in, the Commanders went 1-4 against teams that will make the playoffs in 2024, with that lone win being a close game against an Eagles squad that lost Jalen Hurts. The Falcons are the only technically remaining team with worse odds to win the NFC than the Commanders' +1500. Fingers crossed.

3. Green Bay Packers

Not having to travel to Lambeau makes it a lot easier to like a January matchup against the Packers. They're no pushovers, with the fourth-highest point differential in the NFL this season, but they're also clearly the least intimidating of the three playoff-bound NFC North squads. With a combined 0-4 against the Vikings and Lions in the regular season, even Packers fans probably won't argue too hard with that sentiment.

2. Minnesota Vikings

Here come the toughies. FanDuel Sportsbook actually has early odds on a hypothetical Rams-Vikings matchup, listing L.A. as 2.5-point underdogs.

Of course, that seems to be overlooking the 10-point win the Rams notched over Minnesota in Week 8. Even though Puka Nacua was returning after his five-week injury absence, Matthew Stafford had one of his best games of the season, going off for 279 yards with 4 touchdowns. The Vikes may boast the NFL's fourth-best scoring defense, but Stafford clearly has the potential to shred them.

1. Detroit Lions

Betting markets have the gap between the Vikings and Lions smaller than you might think, but they do agree that the Detroit Lions are the team Rams fans shouldn't want to see coming to SoFi. The Lions are 3-point favorites in the hypothetical line, and their Week 1 overtime win over the Rams still stings.

The Lions have been getting in a bunch of shootouts lately, so there's no real worry that their banged-up defense would stop Stafford. The real concern is that their elite offense (No. 2 in the NFL in yards per game and No. 2 in PFF grade) is nearly impossible to keep up with in a shootout.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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