J.K. Dobbins Will Be Breakout Star of Wild Card Weekend

The Chargers are preparing for an AFC Wild Card showdown in Houston against the Texans on Saturday and one key starter is poised for a massive performance that'll make him the breakout star of the weekend.

RB J.K. Dobbins, who is in his first year with the organization after coming back from a significant knee injury, has emerged as a bonafide weapon in the backfield alongside Gus Edwards. Dobbins is questionable for the contest but is expected to suit up, and he's poised for perhaps his best performance of the season.

Jim Harbaugh built this roster in his identity, wanting to win games with an effective rushing attack and strong defense. Thanks to Dobbins, he'll get his wish on Saturday.

Chargers RB J.K. Dobbins Set to Dominate Texans

Even though Edwards is healthy, Dobbins took control of the backfield over the last two weeks and is the more effective option. He had 37 carries for 139 yards and a TD while Edwards was hurt, helping Los Angeles control the clock and keep the ball out of the opponent's hands.

FanDuel Sportsbook has Dobbins' rushing yards prop set at 59.5 with +130 ($10 to profit $13) odds to score a TD, but the market is drastically underrating how juicy this matchup is for Dobbins.

Houston has a stout defensive line and secondary, ranking second in the NFL in opponent yards per pass attempt (6.2), though their linebacker room is shaky. The Texans are 26th in opponent yards per rush attempt (4.3) at home and are particularly susceptible against playoff teams, surrendering 251 yards to Derrick Henry, 124 yards to the Chiefs, and 105 to the Lions, losing all three contests.

Harbaugh's game plan will prioritize keeping the offense on the field to prevent C.J. Stroud from getting comfortable. That means a healthy dose of Dobbins and it wouldn't be surprising to see him get 20 or more carries.

Dobbins averaged 4.6 yards per carry on the campaign. That means he'd need only 13 carries to hit his rushing prop, a number he cleared each of the last two weeks as Los Angeles tried to cement its status as a playoff team.

FanDuel has the Chargers favored by 2.5 points. If you believe they're going to win, and sportsbooks clearly do, then Dobbins should eclipse 60 yards rushing with relative ease. Keep an eye on his injury status in case he surprisingly sits though. Should that happen, all of the same analysis holds true for Edwards, who is +360 to score a TD.

This is Harbaugh's chance to give the franchise its first playoff win since 2018. He'll get the job done and lean heavily on Dobbins to do it.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.