An obviously dejected LeBron emphasized that he did not know what his next move was following the Lakers' elimination from the playoffs last night. LeBron has a player option this offseason, so he could either opt into his player $52.5 million contract for the 2025-2026 season, or he could test free agency, or he could retire.
LeBron did clarify that he was not looking for other teams to play for, but you never know what can change over the next few weeks. LeBron also seemed to express some frustration with the front office, saying, "My guy AD said what he needed, and then he was gone the following week". Presumably, LeBron is referring to AD's preference to play power forward alongside a bigger center.
When attempting to calculate the likelihood of LeBron's retirement, I think it is important to contextualize what this past season was in terms of his impact on the court. LeBron's raw points, rebounds, and assist averages remained great, but his on-court impact undeniably took a step back. James averaged 24.4 PPG, 7.8 RPG, and 8.2 APG this season.
This was the first season in LeBron's 22-year career where he actually had a negative net-rating swing, meaning that his team was better with him off the court than with him on. The Lakers had a -0.8 net rating with LeBron on the floor, but actually improved to +6.0 with LeBron on the bench. This is the first time that this has happened in LeBron's career.
It doesn't mean he is bad or can't continue to play the game, but when looking at net rating swing along with some other advanced statistics, it is clear that his impact has taken a step back, which should be expected for a 40-year-old vet. I think it's clear that LeBron cannot carry a team to a championship in the West by himself anymore, so unless he is contemplating signing with his hometown Cavs this offseason, retirement is likely on his mind.
Given the fact that Bronny still has a few years left on his Lakers contract and that his family is established in Los Angeles, a move East seems unlikely.
The question LeBron will likely be asking himself is, "Can the Lakers improve enough this offseason to make this team a championship contender in a loaded Western Conference?" The Lakers have their 2026 1st round pick, 2028 first-round pick, and both their 2030/2031 first-round picks. Their draft capital situation isn't stellar enough to acquire a superstar, but they can probably make some moves for upgrades at center and at the wing if they are willing to trade Dorian Finney-Smith and Rui Hachimura.
Still, following a lopsided first-round loss, it feels like the Lakers are far away from contending in the West. James has to ask himself what he is still playing for? If he is playing for a championship, it may be difficult to justify remaining with the Lakers unless he thinks his body can continue to perform for 2-3 years as they build a roster around Luka.