Austin Reaves' future with the Lakers has been one of the main topics of conversation following the Luka Doncic acquisition in February. Luka is a ball-dominant heliocentric offensive player, one of the best in the world offensively, to be sure, but has struggled on the defensive end over his career. Reaves is not a natural fit next to Luka, given the fact that Reaves has his own issues on the defensive end.
Still, Reaves had an amazing season with the Lakers this year as his PPG leaped from 15.9 to 20.2 while his efficiency remained roughly the same as last season. One of the most positive developments was his improvement from three as he took 102 more three-point attempts than last season while increasing his efficiency from 37% to 39%. This 3PT shooting leap is huge for a player trying to fit in alongside Luka Doncic.
When projecting Austin Reaves' next contract extension, we should look at his impact metrics to see where he ranked relative to the rest of the NBA. Looking at Estimated Plus-Minus (EPM), Reaves finished the regular season ranked in the 92nd percentile of EPM. For Box-Plus Minus, Reaves ranked 50th in the NBA. In terms of Win Shares, Reaves finished the season ranked 27th, responsible for 7.6 win shares, tied with his teammate LeBron James. Reaves also led the Lakers in on-off net-rating swing this season amongst players who played the entire season, finishing +5.6 in net-rating swing.
I could go through endless advanced stats, but the point is that Reaves is clearly in the top-50 range of players in the NBA. Specifically, he has established himself as a clear top-25 offensive player in the NBA who has consistently been hyper-efficient in all four of his NBA seasons.
The issue with Reaves this season was his playoff performance against an athletic and physical Timberwolves team. Reaves' PPG dropped from 20.2 to 16.2, and his efficiency also took a hit as he shot just 33% from three and 52% effectively from the field. His impact was not there this playoffs, and for a team with championship aspirations like the Lakers, they have to weigh that pretty heavily as they approach extension talks.
The Lakers could offer him roughly $19.5 million per year for four years this summer, but Reaves has far exceeded that value. Austin Reaves will certainly opt out next summer (2026) to test free agency. Rob Pelinka should expect to be negotiating in the neighborhood of $35-45 million per year for Austin Reaves, assuming he repeats his impact from the 2024-2025 season in 2025-2026.
This price tag likely sounds high to many Laker fans, but the reality is that this is a fair price for a guard delivering the amount of offensive impact that Reaves is producing. Don't rule out the possibility of a trade at some point next season, if the Lakers feel like Reaves is not a $35 million a year player, and they want to prioritize winning now with James and Doncic together.