Pac-12 Mid-Season Power Poll
We’re more than two thirds of the way through the season and each Pac-12 team has played five or six conference games.
The Calendar says November now, which means the best matchups of the season are right around the corner. That makes it the perfect time to line up the 12 teams of the Pac one by one. No roundup this week, it’s time for a for a late-mid-season Power Poll! Beginning with:
THE GARY BARNETT DIVISION (THE DREGS):
#12 COLORADO 1-8 (0-5): Everyone expected the Buffalos to be bad at the beginning of the season, and they are truly living up to pre-season expectations. When they lost to Cal in OT by a mere three points in September, some of us thought the Buffs might be game to be
competitive in their first year in the Pac.
But it’s turned out that Cal isn’t exactly a juggernaut either, and when the Buffs lost at home to Wazzu on October 1st, they may have also lost their only shot at a conference win in their debut season in the Pac.
They do have Arizona visiting Boulder on the 12th, but the Cats have a prolific passing game that CU probably can’t keep up with and the rest of their team has been looking better since firing Mike Stoops.
The Buffs close with seemingly winnable games against UCLA and Utah. However, both of those games are on the road and Buffs haven’t won a game outside the state of Colorado in 4 years (@ Texas Tech in 2007). A winless conference season is starting to look likely (and yes, if they end up beating Utah, I’ll blame myself for writing this paragraph).
#11 WASHINGTON STATE 3-5 (1-4)
No one was happier to see Colorado join the Pac-12 than Washington State. Since 2004, the Cougars are 13-48 in the Pac, including an abysmal 2-25 the last three seasons. So when Wazzu started this season with a 3-1 record and 1-0 in conference, it seemed like there might be a renaissance going on in Pullman.
But looking past the numbers revealed wins over Idaho State, UNLV, and a conference win over lowly CU.
Since that encouraging start, the Cougars are 0-4 with losses to woeful UCLA and Oregon State, the latter at home in Pullman.
The Cougs finish @ Cal, v. ASU, v. Utah, and @ UW. Barring some Apple Cup magic or a horrible game from Utah, the Cougars are probably done winning for the season. The good news is, if they do find a way to win another game, they’ll double their total conference wins in the last two seasons combined.
This is getting depressing. Let’s move on to the feel good Beavers of…
#10 OREGON STATE 2-6 (3-2): Ok. “Feel-Good” is a stretch, but when you consider that the Beaves opened the season with a loss to Sacramento State and followed it with a drubbing by Wisconsin and a home loss to the soap opera known as UCLA, it really seemed like Oregon State could have gone all season without a single victory.
But the Beavers notched a 10-point victory against Arizona that mercifully ended the Stoops era, and then got a road win in the conference on the road at Wazzu.
The Beavers just handed Utah their first win in the Pac and now face Stanford, @ Cal, Washington and @ Oregon so probably will not win another game this season. But as sad as it seems, 2-7 would be a lot better than the Beavers figured to finish in the Pac back in mid-September.
THE BOB TOLEDO DIVISION (THE UNINSPIRING ENIGMAS):
Honestly, you could shuffle these teams around in any order and make an argument for it. But the bottom line is, they all thought they could be pretty good this year, and have all been bitter disappointments. We’ll start with:
#9 UTAH 4-4 (1-4): In my pre-season rankings, I mentioned that with zero returning rushing yards from last season, and a questionable quarterback with shaky health, the predictions of Utah finishing in the top 2 or three of the South Division were presumptuous at best.
Eight games into the season, Utah’s offensive struggles have been even greater than I feared as QB Jordan Wynn suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in the Utes’ 4th game against Washington.
With inexperienced players at all the skill positions, Utah has surrendered the 2nd most turnovers in the Pac and has struggled to put points on the board. The Utes are last in the Pac-12 in Total Offense and Passing Offense and have been particularly bad in conference games.
During a stretch in October beginning with Wynn’s injury, Utah turned the ball over 14 times in three conference games against Washington, Cal and Arizona State (Oddly, during that stretch, the Utes played a non-conference game at Pitt and won convincingly without turning the ball over at all.).
It must have been a huge relief for Offensive Coordinator Norm Chow to see the Utes post only one giveaway to Oregon State on Saturday. It was no accident that the Utes won the turnover battle 4 to 1, and won (essentially) 4 TDs to 1 on the scoreboard (27-8).
As bad as Utah’s record is, they still have the #2 defense in the Pac (and honestly, #1 Stanford has played a much easier schedule). If inexperience on offense is your problem, that means you’re likely to get a bit better every week and with a November schedule that includes Washington State, Colorado and UCLA, Utah’s bowl hopes are actually still very much alive.
#8 CALIFORNIA 4-4 (1-4): Feels like Cal should be in the top-half of the conference, but after they got hammered at UCLA last weekend, you just can’t do it. After beginning Pac-12 play with a tough, @ Oregon, @ Washington, v. USC trio, Cal seemed poised for a 2ndhalf surge. Their raw
quarterback seemed to be improving a week ago against Utah, and their schedule from mid-October through Thanksgiving looked extremely manageable with Utah, UCLA, Wazzu, and Oregon State.
But whatever progress Zach Maynard seemed to be making at home evaporated in the dry Pasadena air on Saturday. Maynard threw 4 Interceptions, 3 of them to freshman safety Tevin McDonald. The Bears had 5 turnovers, which lead directly to 24 of the Bruins 31 points.
The Bears still have the #3 defense in the Pac, and you can never count out Jeff Tedford, but with totally erratic quarterback play, it’s hard to take this year’s Bears too seriously.
#7 UCLA 4-4 (3-2): Wait. UCLA has a winning conference record? The team that gets walked-over every time it plays on TV and has the coach with the hottest seat in America? The team that celebrated it’s win over Oregon State like it was the Fiesta Bowl and calls every single game it wins a “job-saving” win for it’s head coach? They are .500 and 3-2 in conference?
Well, yes. That Stanford game only counts for one loss on the Bruins’ schedule and the Baby Bears have played OSU, Wazzu and got 5 turnovers from Cal last Saturday in the Rose Bowl. 3-2.
Furthermore, two of the Bruins final four games are against teams below them on this list (Colorado and Utah). If they win those, we could be looking at a 6-6 UCLA team representing the Pac in the Sun Bowl.
Heaven help us.
Dan Guerrero has to be hoping for it. Then he wouldn’t have to fire Neuheisel and pay him seven figures next season to not coach the team. It also wouldn’t hurt that the Bruins would be the only team in Los Angeles playing in a bowl this year.
Again. Heaven help us.
#6 ARIZONA 2-6 (1-5): Yes, I see Arizona’s record. Yes I realize it’s worse than everyone but Colorado. But when I made this list, I asked myself, if these teams were playing next week, whom would I expect to win?
Was I honestly supposed to put Arizona behind UCLA only two weeks after 48-12? Who on this list so far would you expect to beat Arizona if they played this week?
The Cats did indeed lose head-to-head with #10 Oregon State, but since that loss got Mike Stoops fired, UA has found a running game, started playing defense and turned into a team no one wants to face. The Wildcats embarrassed UCLA, and then went up to Seattle and gave Washington all they could handle. Now the Cats are looking at a remaining schedule of Utah, Colorado and Louisiana-Lafayette. It’s not unthinkable that the Wildcats could easily finish this season on a very happy note.
THE DENNIS ERICKSON DIVISION (THE CONTENDING PRETENDERS)
#5 WASHINGTON 6-2 (4-1): Before the season started, many suspected Washington could be the third best team in the Pac-12 North. After two months of games, we’re pretty much positive of it.
Two weeks ago the Huskies took a 5-1 record (with the one loss a hard fought one @ then #11 Nebraska) and top 25 ranking into Palo Alto to give Stanford their first test of the season.
It was a highly anticipated game, but Stanford beat the Huskies like they were Duke. Worse actually. UW can still define its season with matchups against Oregon and USC upcoming, but it looks like Steve Sarkisian’s squad is firmly locked in the upper-middle of the conference. Clearly better than the bad teams, and well worse than the great ones.
Washington should feel great about the prospect of back-to-back bowls for the first time since 2001-’02, but the rebuilding project in Seattle is not finished yet.
#4 USC 6-2 (3-2): If you heard any USC fans talking about the Trojans this week, you’d probably think the Trojans were on the way to another Rose Bowl. Troy has reason to feel good after USC played it’s two best games of the Kiffin Era back-to-back, and feeling Bush Administration era energy in the Coliseum on Saturday. However, the sad truth is, not only can USC not play in the post season, the Trojans have the same 3-2 conference record as UCLA.
Nickell Robey and Dion Bailey are bright young stars emerging on defense and Matt Barkley’s last two games were the best performances of his career. But the fact is, USC was shown-up on the road against division Rival ASU, barely beat a floundering Utah team, and just came up short against Stanford.
Finishing better than you started is wonderful, but ultimately, it only matters for those who can play in the post-season. USC is building momentum for next season and that’s great for the 2012 team. However the 2011 team had a goal to win the Pac-12 South and that is seeming remote. USC would need to be perfect from here on out and see ASU lose twice if they are to realize their goal of winning their division. PS:ASU doesn’t have to play Oregon.
I can’t put a team in that spot any higher than 4th.
#3 ARIZONA STATE 6-2 (4-1): @UCLA, @ Washington State, Arizona, Cal. That is ASU’s remaining schedule. That is what stands in the way of
the Devils finishing with eight conference wins for the first time since 1996 when Jake Plummer lead the Devils to an undefeated regular season and a narrow Rose Bowl loss to Ohio State.
I wrote extensively about ASU early in the season when they played three ranked opponents in a row, but the Devils have been out of the spotlight lately. They have posted modest, but convincing wins over the likes of Utah, Colorado and Oregon State and a loss at Oregon that proved the Devils were not quite at the Pac’s highest level yet.
No one really thinks ASU is ready to win the inaugural Pac-12 Championship game, but it’s all but certain, they’ll be playing in it. For a team that’s had one winning conference record in the last six years, that’s not bad.
THE JIM HARBAUGH DIVISION (THE LEGITIMATE CONTENDERS)
#2 OREGON 7-1 (5-0): You sort of have to feel for Oregon. They started their season as the media pick (but not mine) to win the Pac-12. They go down to Texas to play an LSU team that turned out to be the best (or second best) team in the country, and everyone has had them behind Stanford ever since.
May I remind everyone that while Oregon was in Dallas getting it’s teeth kicked in, Stanford was back in Palo Alto having tea and crumpets with San Jose State. And since that weekend, both Stanford and Oregon have looked every bit as good as we hoped they’d be before the season.
Oregon has been particularly impressive beating Arizona State handily on a night when they lost both LaMichael James and Darren Thomas to injury. The Ducks are fast, the Ducks are deep and the Ducks are extremely well coached in a system that is almost impossible to prepare for.
They are 4th nationally in rushing yards, 4th in total points and 5th in total offense. They are well ahead of Stanford in all those categories. I still like the Cardinal to beat Oregon for reasons I’ll mention below, but the Duck’s opening loss to LSU while Stanford was in a pillow fight has nothing to do with it.
I congratulate Chip Kelly on scheduling tough and think the experience with an SEC team will play in his team’s favor when it comes time to go to Stanford.
Make no mistake, Oregon is still great and that is what makes the November 12 matchup the biggest Pac-12 game since Cal visited USC in 2004.
#1 STANFORD 8-0 (6-0): Where Oregon uses speed and schematics to beat teams, Stanford uses precision and deliberate force. The Cardinal is more SEC power than Pac-12 finesse. It’s a recipe for a consistent team that delivers week in and week out.
They can run, they can pass, they defend well and they don’t make mistakes. The Cardinal is 3rd nationally in points per game, 13th in points allowed. 9th in quarterback sacks made and 3rd in sacks allowed. They have surrendered the 3rd fewest turnovers in the country and they are the 2nd least penalized team in the Pac-12.
But the reason Stanford is so scary transcends all of that. Andrew Luck isn’t just a physically gifted quarterback, or just a smart quarterback. He’s a winner, and everyone who watched the Cardinal’s game at USC last weekend knows it.
Late in the 4th quarter, USC corner Nickell Robey jumped a route and intercepted a Luck pass in Cardinal territory and returned it for a go-ahead TD with just over three minutes left in the game.
The atmosphere in the Coliseum had been great all night and when the Cardinal took over at their own 24, needing a touchdown with only 3 minutes left, it felt like my college days were back again.
90,000+ going crazy, and USC’s sideline was looking like a mosh pit. We were causing big sacks on 3rd down from a team that doesn’t allow pressure on the QB. We were getting turnovers at huge moments from a team that doesn’t give the ball away.
The feeling was electric, the sound was deafening and we all felt like we could will the Trojans to victory. Just like we used to.
The momentum was all going USC’s way. All of Stanford’s 4th quarter drives before the INT had all ended in punts. We’d figured the Cardinal out, and we were playing with more energy. Robey’s pick-six was the game-ender.
Then Andrew Luck broke the huddle and walked to the line of scrimmage like it was a September home game against UNLV and threw a confident pass over the middle as though he’d never thrown an interception in his life.
I’d seen the demeanor, the confidence, and the total absence of urgency starting a seemingly impossible drive with everything on the line before. In
fact, I’d seen it hundreds of times on my NFL films tapes growing up. It was my boyhood hero John Elway turning his back to the Cleveland Dog Pound and tossing that first short pass to Sammy Winder.
After Ty Montgomery pulled in Luck’s first pass for a Stanford 1stdown, I remembered I was not watching just another good quarterback. I was
watching a future legend. At that moment I could see John Elway in my mind. Sitting in a leather chair in front of his television in Denver. He was wearing a Stanford sweatshirt, watching the game in a dimly lit room. He was smiling, and saying to himself, “We’ve got these sons of bitches right where we want them.”
Damn if imaginary Elway wasn’t right.
10 plays and 76 yards later, Stepfan Taylor was powering into the end zone and Stanford had tied the game. In that final drive of regulation and overtime, Luck completed 7 of 9 passes (78%) for 59 yards, a Touchdown and a successful 2-point conversion. He also ran 3 times for 29 yards.
The Cardinal has Oregon coming to Palo Alto, and they’ll probably get Arizona State at home in the Pac-12 Championship too.
Oklahoma, Wisconsin and Clemson have lost, Oklahoma State probably will soon. The computers don’t like Boise.
I don’t know if Stanford is good enough to beat the champion of the SEC and win the BCS, but I know this, if any team outside the SEC can go into the Superdome and win in January, it’s the Pac-12’s best. The Stanford Cardinal.