Angels: Can Shohei Ohtani live up to lofty expectations?

The Los Angeles Angels have made a myriad of moves this offseason. The biggest of such moves was acquiring Japanese superstar Shohei Ohtani.

The Los Angeles Angels have been very busy this offseason. After failing to give Mike Trout a single postseason win in his career, the Angels entered the offseason with an agenda. That agenda has led to an all or nothing mindset that will either catapult the Angels back into the playoffs or blow up in their face.

Chances are though that the Angels will be significantly better than last season. With the best player in baseball patroling center field, it is hard to see this project coming back to bite them.

First, the team extending Justin Upton for five more seasons. This contract will definitely come back to bite them, but for now, it is okay. Los Angeles also added infielders Ian Kinsler and Zack Cozart to play second and third base. Cozart is coming off of a career year, and although Kinsler regressed greatly in 2018, is still a big veteran bat to add to the order.

However, the biggest move the Angels have made has easily been the acquisition of Shohei Ohtani. Dubbed the Japanese Babe Ruth, Ohtani enters the MLB at just 23 years old with the ability to throw 100 MPH fastballs and hit 450 foot home runs.

Ohtani instantly became the number one prospect in baseball and will either be the Angels ace or pitch second behind Garrett Richards. Although the current plan is unclear, Ohtani is likely going to also DH on days he is not pitching. In his last full season in Japan, Ohtani hit .322 with 22 home runs in 323 at-bats. He also threw 140 innings to the tune of a 1.86 ERA.

Ohtani is good, he is fun and he gives Major League Baseball a spectacle they have never seen before. The entire league is going to have their eyes set on Ohtani and how he translates to the MLB.

Can Ohtani live up to these lofty expectations?

FanGraphs pieced together their ZIPS Projections to pinpoint how good Ohtani can be in his first MLB season. On the mound, Ohtani is projected to throw 139 innings with a 3.55 ERA and 161 strikeouts. Not the greatest numbers on paper, but for an AL team as a rookie, that is not bad.

At the plate is an entirely different story. Ohtani is projected to own a .266/.328/.466 slash line. The MLB hitter most similar to those projections? Matt Kemp.

The hype is still alive around Ohtani despite what the advanced statistics show. Ohtani possesses a video game-like aura around him that will inevitably leave fans disappointed. He is that Road to the Show player that you max out all the attributes on. For many, a 30 home run, sub 3.00 ERA season may be the only production that can satisfy fans.

However, that will not even come close. In fact, Ohtani is primed to have one of the most disappointing rookie seasons in recent memory. News surfaced of elbow problems in Ohtani’s pitching arm. Although Angel fans are preaching that this news is not an issue, it is concerning to hear your coveted acquisition is injured in his elbow.

Plus, Ohtani’s hitting is not going to translate well to the MLB. Ohtani struck out in over 30% of his at-bats over the last two years in Japan. Sure, he hits home runs, but how well do high strikeout sluggers translate to the MLB?

Sure, there are always exceptions such as Aaron Judge, but Ohtani is primed to be the Angels version of Joc Pederson; flirting around 20 home runs with an average near the Mendoza line.

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Pitching may be Ohtani’s only shot at receiving any accolades. However, if the Angels do not manage him probably he will only begin to burn out as the season transpires. We see it with every single Japanese pitcher that comes over to the MLB. They are not used to the massive workload.

Yu Darvish had a 4.26 ERA in the second half of his rookie season. Masahiro Tanaka threw only seven innings in the second half of his rookie year to a 7.71 ERA. Kenta Maeda‘s ERA rose from 2.95 to 4.25. This is a natural regression for Japanese pitchers.

And the Angels somehow want Ohtani to manage that workload as well as hitting in the lineup in his off days.

Now, Ohtani has a long career ahead of him, he is only 23 years old. However, the initial transition to the MLB is going to be a lot rockier than many people except. Thus, do not gets your hopes up at all on Ohtani in his rookie year. You will be let down.

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Hopefully, for the Angels, Ohtani can somehow adjust to something that nobody in modern history has done — be an all-star pitcher and hitter. If he can’t, well, he will be a massive disappointment.

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