Dodgers: History indicates that Cody Bellinger will regress in 2018

Rookie Cody Bellinger was a pivotal part of the Dodgers’ MLB-best 104-58 record last season. Now, Bellinger must prove he can break the prototypical slugger mold.

Cody Bellinger was a part of something very special last season. Not only does his red-hot summer revitalize the Los Angeles Dodgers and the season; he was one half of the iconic rookie power-hitting duo with Aaron Judge. For most of the season, Bellinger seems untouchable.

Arriving in late April, Bellinger missed an entire month’s worth of action and was never regarded as a permanent call-up. Bellinger was brought up to the outfield as Joc Pederson suffered a groin injury.

However, a hot start and menacing bat cemented Bellinger’s place on the big league roster for the rest of the season.

Bellinger’s second career home run was the second of three back-to-back-to-back home runs that allowed the Dodgers to make a four-run ninth inning comeback against the Philadelphia Phillies. This was the perfect start for Bellinger and served as the perfect metaphor for the Dodgers’ season. This team wouldn’t quit; they seemed impossible to beat.

Bellinger capitalized on the great start and rode that untouchable momentum for months. In May and June alone Bellinger slugged 22 home runs, averaging one every 10.77 plate appearances. In comparison, Barry Bonds averaged one home run every 9.10 plate appearances in his record-setting 73 home run season.

The hype was real around Bellinger; it was justified. After making the NL All-Star team, Bellinger hit for the cycle in just his second game back. He made amazing play after amazing play in the postseason. 2017 was Cody Bellinger’s year.

However, the World Series reminded everyone that Bellinger indeed was still a rookie and was more than human. Bellinger broke the two-week-old record for postseason strikeouts. The Houston Astros, primarily with just curve balls, struck Bellinger out 17 times in 29 plate appearances.

In fact, this was a stern reminder that Bellinger’s rookie season may have caused an over exaggeration of his abilities.

Bellinger was phenomenal early on, there is no doubt about that. However, pitchers began to figure out him out. His high-arching, softball-like swing had holes that were being manipulated. In the second half of the season, Bellinger’s batting average rose, but he hit 11 fewer home runs.

That may not be concerning to you, it really shouldn’t be. Bellinger does not need to hit home runs to contribute. However, what is concerning is the history of players like Bellinger. The prototypical slugger mold that has been created far too often. If Bellinger ever wants to succeed in this league long-term he must break the mold.

Sluggers come and go, it is the ones that can hit for average and get on base that stay. At one point Ryan Howard was the most dominant hitter in baseball. Howard hit 262 home runs over a six-year stretch. The next two seasons he hit 25 combined and missed time due to injury. After that, despite still hitting over 20 home runs, he was regarded far below average.

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Many of the most recent home run leaders are now out of jobs or find themselves in a much smaller role. In the NL alone there is Matt Kemp in 2011 (-0.5 WAR last season), Pedro Alvarez in 2013 (played 14 games in 2017) and Chris Carter in 2016 (-0.7 WAR, was cut by the Yankees after 62 games).

There are more examples in the AL. Jose Bautista led in 2010 and 2011, posted a -0.5 WAR last season. 2013 and 2015 leader Chris Davis posted a 0.2 WAR last season. Heck, after leading the league with 47 home runs in 2016, Mark Trumbo hit just 23 home runs in 2017 and posted a -1.2 WAR.

Cody Bellinger is not that different from any of these other guys.

Now, Bellinger seems to be a better natural hitter than those before him. But remember, at the time, those before Bellinger all that carried that same aura that Bellinger does; they all seemed like great natural hitters. As much as Dodger fans want to ignore the history around sluggers, it is only appropriate to look it in the eye if Bellinger wants to break that mold.

In fact, Bellinger does not shy all that much from the rest of the guys mentioned. We combined the strikeout percentage of all of the guys mentioned in their home run-leading seasons. Combined, they struck out 26.89% of their plate appearances.

Cody Bellinger struck out 26.64% of his hit plate appearances. If two bad calls didn’t go Bellinger’s way; if he struck out just two more times his strikeout percentage would have been 27% — higher than those mentioned. Bellinger hit .267 in his rookie year, which is definitely good for a rookie. The rest of the guys’ combined batting average in their breakout years? .268.

So as much as Dodger fans want to call Bellinger different from the prototypical power-hitter, he really isn’t. At least not yet.

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Cody Bellinger is young, he is a rookie and he is only set to get better. The only way he is going to get better, though, is by breaking the power-hitting mold set before him. That all starts with learning how to deal with the curve.

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