March Madness 2018: Making the NCAA Tournament is tough for UCLA

The UCLA Basketball Bruins enter the Pac-12 Tournament as the third seed. Despite the high seeding, UCLA’s path to the NCAA Tournament and March Madness will be tough.

The UCLA Basketball Bruins ended the season on a high note. UCLA defeated rival USC, 83-72, in the final game of the season to cement themselves as a third seed in the Pac-12 Tournament. With this seeding also came a first-round bye for the Bruins. UCLA is marching into March Madness.

The Bruins will face the winner of California and Stanford. This is college basketball and anything can happen, especially with Cal beating Stanford earlier in the year. However, all signs are pointing to Stanford taking home the victory to face the Bruins in the quarterfinals.

This alone is already a tough game for the UCLA Bruins. UCLA split the season series with Stanford, the deciding factor ultimately being who the home team was. With the tournament taking place at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, that homecourt advantage is no longer available.

Thus, it is entirely conceivable to see the Bruins lose in their first game. While I do not see it happening, I would also not be surprised if it did.

The next game for UCLA would be the most challenging and would ultimately lock the Bruins into the NCAA Tournament to partake in March Madness. Barring any significant upsets, UCLA will face Arizona in the semi-finals of the Pac-12 Tournament.

Arizona is the first seed in the Pac-12 and finished the season with a 14-4 conference record. However, not all hope is lost for UCLA as they did defeat Arizona, 82-74, in the two sides’ only matchup.

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I would not count on that matchup telling the entire story of Arizona and UCLA, though. Deandre Ayton is the best player in college basketball and will likely turn it up a notch for the conference tournament. That alone is terrifying for UCLA.

With a loss to Arizona, it is hard to see the Bruins making any sort of case for the tournament. UCLA did defeat then seventh-ranked Kentucky, however, Kentucky is now unranked heading into March Madness. The biggest win is over Arizona, which would be erased with a conference tournament loss.

A win guarantees an NCAA Tournament berth, regardless of the outcome in the Pac-12 finals. However, it is going to be tough for a third-seeded team, who lost in the semifinals, to get an at-large bid. USC did get an at-large bid last season to compete in the First Four despite being the sixth seed and losing in the Pac-12 quarterfinals.

It definitely is possible for the Bruins to lose in the semifinals and make the tournament, it is just unlikely. Knowing the NCAA though, and how popular UCLA is, the team will likely get a First Four spot regardless. And quite frankly, that may be all you can really expect for UCLA if they cannot get it done against Arizona.

Ultimately, the Bruins’ March Madness fate will boil down to that semifinal matchup against Arizona. What I do know now, though, that it is going to be a tough path to the NCAA Tournament.