Los Angeles Chargers: Why Melvin Gordon will stay in LA

Nobody knows is Melvin Gordon will ever take another snap for the Los Angeles Chargers but we have a pretty good feeling that he will.

The Los Angeles Chargers are in the midst of something that is becoming very prevalent in the NFL: a running back holdout. Melvin Gordon wants a new contract with the team and if he does not get it then he wants to be traded from LA.

It has already reached that point as Gordon’s agent informed ESPN that Gordon requested a trade after the two sides could not come to an agreement on contract details. The Chargers reportedly offered Gordon a contract in the $10 million per year ballpark, to which Gordon declined.

The Houston Texans were viewed as a potential fit for Gordon after the team released running back D’Onta Foreman. Gordon would have been the perfect complement to the Texans’ offense, however, the team has since trading for Duke Johnson Jr, so those talks have fizzled.

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Trading Gordon to Houston would have been a mistake as they are a team that the Chargers potentially will have to get through to get to the Super Bowl. That is just part of a bigger equation that will eventually lead to Gordon remaining in LA.

Here’s the thing: not paying running backs is not exclusive to the Los Angeles Chargers and is instead part of a league-wide narrative. Some backs get the big paydays, but more times than not this comes back to bite. Because of that, team’s are balking at the idea of spending quarterback money on a running back.

It sucks for the running backs but that is just the current status of the league. The position is not worth that much and that is why Gordon is not alone in his holdout and Ezekiel Elliott is holding out as well.

Are there teams that are going to pay Gordon? Probably. But they are not going to pay Gordon much more than that $10 million number that the Chargers offered. Todd Gurley is making $14.5 million per year. There is no way that any team pays Gordon as much as Gurley, especially after Gurley’s knee issues.

So Gordon might end up getting two, two and a half million more per year if he gets traded to a team that wants to extend him. But that is just the problem: there are not many fits for Gordon in a trade.

There are contending teams that could use an elite running back but most contending teams do not have the cap to sign an extension. And the ones that do are in the AFC (Texans, Colts), which makes no sense for the Los Angeles Chargers.

So there are three options: sit out this season, get traded to a team that either cannot offer an extension or offers an extension similar to the Chargers or play for the Chargers.

If he sits out then he is missing out on $5 million. If he gets traded and agrees to a new contract, chances are it will be for a mediocre team, like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and he will end up getting similar money anyway. Or, he can play this season, get his $5 million then renegotiate with the Chargers as well as other teams in free agency.

The team could franchise tag him, which is worry, but any team can franchise tag him. At least if he tests the free-agent market then he could increase his value with a great 2019 season.

His value will diminish if he sits out, with the generous ceiling of his contract then being around $12 million. If he signs a four-year deal, he is only going to make $3 million more than he would have if he gets $5 million this year and then $10 million per year after. Is that $3 million worth the risk?

The Los Angeles Chargers are not going to run him into the ground, something Le’Veon Bell was worried about, which led to him sitting out. The Chargers have a running back rotation that is going to lessen the load and a passing offense that is going to take priority at times.

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This is not to say that the Chargers will agree to a new contract with Gordon, but it would not be all that surprising to see Gordon end up playing his last year in LA before addressing a new contract in March.

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