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Los Angeles Clippers: Betting on the Clippers might be a mistake

By Jon Soden

LOS ANGELES, CA - JULY 24: (L-R) Head coach Doc Rivers, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard and owner Steve Ballmer of the Los Angeles Clippers attend the Paul George and Kawhi Leonard introductory press conference at Green Meadows Recreation Center on July 24, 2019 in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CA - JULY 24: (L-R) Head coach Doc Rivers, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard and owner Steve Ballmer of the Los Angeles Clippers attend the Paul George and Kawhi Leonard introductory press conference at Green Meadows Recreation Center on July 24, 2019 in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images) /
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The Los Angeles Clippers are favorites to win the NBA 2020 Championship, but betting on them may be a mistake.

When the Los Angeles Clippers pulled off the remarkable feat of signing Kawhi Leonard and trading for Paul George, they became 2020 title favorites — but don’t be too quick to lay down any of your hard-earned money on them.

Obviously, after the acquisition of Leonard and George, the betting odds for the Clippers to win the NBA Championship skyrocketed, along with their win total projections. Action Network gives the Clippers the best chance to win the championship at +350 (for every $100 bet, the bettor would profit $350) and DraftKings has placed their over/under win total at 56.5 games.

While the Clippers roster improvements will improve their record and chances to win it all, it does not mean it makes them a better team to invest in. In fact, the recency bias may have overvalued the Clippers and negatively affected their return on investment.

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If I was a betting man (which I am) I would not bet on the Clippers, and here is why:

First, I will start by explaining why it is not smart to bet the over on the Clippers projected win total of 56.5 games.

The Clippers won 48 games last year, so many would say that by adding Leonard and George, it is safe to assume that they can win nine more games this season.

However, by adding two stars, it completely changes the makeup of the team. While George and Leonard both seem to be good fits on paper, it still needs to translate to the actual games. They are not ball stoppers by any means, but both players need the ball in their hands to be most effective, especially Leonard.

This has a ripple effect and will cause the roles of the complimentary players to change. For example, Lou Williams may not be needed as a scorer as much as he was in the past. If he is not on the court to be a primary or secondary scorer, how valuable is Lou Will for the Clippers heading into next season?

With these changes taking place, expect the chemistry to take some time to develop, and therefore, the Clippers to get off to a slower start than expected.

Additionally, by investing in the Clippers regular-season win total, you are betting on the health and consistency of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George to be in the lineup on a night to night basis.

According to Jovan Buha of The Athletic, Paul George could be sidelined due to his shoulder surgery (on both shoulders) until “mid-to-late November.” This indicates that George could miss around the first 15 games of the season. Even when he does come back, it will take time for George to re-acclimate and get back in game shape.

Kawhi Leonard may be healthy, but he should also be expected to miss a large chunk of games throughout the regular season as well.

Leonard missed 22 games last season due to load management and has never played a full season in his entire career (only two seasons of 70+ games).

His trend of load management will continue on in the coming season. Kawhi and the Los Angeles Clippers are not concerned about their regular-season record. They have one goal and one goal only — to hoist the Larry O’Brien at the end of the year. However, this may come at the expense of their win column, and those that bet the over on it.

With both their stars missing double-digit games, the Clippers project 56.5 wins is too generous.

Now, I will explain why I would not recommend betting on the Clippers to win the championship.

Normally, a +350 line for the title favorites seems solid, but not this year. There are realistically nine teams that have a legitimate claim to be title contenders this year ⁠— the Clippers, Lakers, Jazz, Nuggets, Warriors, Rockets, Blazers, Bucks, and Sixers.

I will break it down mathematically to show why this would be a very poor bet.

To start, let’s say hypothetically that each of those nine teams has an equal chance to win it all. That would give each team an 11.11% chance of winning the championship. Obviously, teams like the Clippers have better odds than that, while teams like the Blazers have worse odds.

If we are going to be very generous, let’s bump up the Clippers chances of winning the championship to 20%.

With a probability of 20% on a +350 line, the flat bet expected value (every time $100 is bet, this will be the net profit/loss) is $-10. In other words, if you bet $100 on the Clippers to win the championship, the statistical average of this bet would equate to losing $10.

But realistically, the Clippers are not at a 20% chance to win it all. Due to having so many legitimate contenders, I have the Clippers with a 15% chance to win it all (second-best behind the Bucks, who I have at 18%, due to a weaker Eastern Conference).

With this percentage and a +350 line, the flat bet expected value drops all the way to $-32.5 on a $100 bet.

Next. The Clippers' two notable worries in 2019. dark

In other words, it is a very poor choice statistically to bet on the Los Angeles Clippers.

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