Los Angeles Dodgers: My terrible gut feeling about the 2019 postseason

The Los Angeles Dodgers are playing October baseball for the seventh year in a row and as a fan, a terrible feeling lingers over what has been a great year.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are currently riding the longest active and third-longest postseason streak of all-time with seven consecutive National League West titles. Of the seven, this team has been the best, winning 106 games to set a new franchise record.

Practical wisdom says that we should be more confident of a 106-win team than we have any other Dodger team. This is also a team that has won back-to-back National League Pennants, so they are the team to beat in the NL.

They have a three-headed pitching monster of Clayton Kershaw, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Walker Buehler, a deep bullpen that finished first in ERA in the NL and a deep roster full of guys that have contributed all year long.

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Most importantly: the team is pretty healthy heading into October. The only everyday player that is unavailable is Alex Verdugo, who has not played since early August.

Despite all of these positives, I cannot shake this nasty gut feeling about the Dodgers. This is a team that has done everything to win me over as a fan yet I still have had this lingering gut feeling that it is going to go out with a dud, not a bang.

There are two parts to this bad gut feeling.

First, the idea of making it to the World Series the third year in a row. Is this possible? Absolutely. The Dodgers are the best team in the NL and have been all year.

But it is not always the best team that makes and wins the World Series. October baseball is all about who gets hot at the right time. Granted, when you have the most talented, your chances of being the hottest are higher. We see it every year: baseball, of any of the major four sports, has the most variance in the postseason.

Not only does it take talent and momentum, but you do need some luck to reach the World Series. Luck is something that nobody likes admitting to when you succeed but there definitely is some luck that is involved.

And to get the right formula for the third year in a row is rare. Eighteen teams in MLB history have won three straight Pennants or more but half of those are the New York Yankees of old. The last team to do it was the 1998-2001 New York Yankees.

The more important thing to note is who the Los Angeles Dodgers are playing in the NLDS: the Washington Nationals. I have had this unshakable fear of the Nationals for the entire season, almost to the extent where baseball feels like a horror movie.

The Nationals also have a three-headed pitching dragon of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin. Scherzer did finish the year cold and was not great in the wild card game while Strasburg had to come out of relief.

But Scherzer is still one of the best pitchers in the game, Strasburg is an all-star-caliber pitcher with a 3.32 ERA and Patrick Corbin, who gets the ball in Game 1, is a Dodger killer. Corbin has a 0.59 ERA in 30.1 innings pitched against the Dodgers since the start of 2018.

The one silver lining is they have a poor bullpen. The Baltimore Orioles were the only team with a worse bullpen ERA, so if the Dodgers can at least get the pitch count up for the starters, they can be successful.

The Nationals’ offense is scary as well. They have an MVP candidate in Anthony Rendon, a young phenom in Juan Soto, a solid lead-off guy in Trea Turner and a myriad of other pieces that fit nicely in this lineup.

This team gives me 2015 New York Mets vibes. A team that rides solid starting pitching and an insane October from one guy to get to the World Series. So far, Soto is making the case, although Rendon is the favorite to step up in that role.

Then you have the uncertainty of the Dodgers. Can Walker Buehler and Hyun-Jin Ryu handle the pressure? They should be able to, but it is a legitimate question. Will Kershaw have his meltdown? And what about the Dodgers’ MVP, Cody Bellinger?

Bellinger is abysmal in his postseason career and there is also the concern of Joc Pederson, Max Muncy, Will Smith and other streaky hitters getting cold. We have seen this Dodger lineup get cold throughout the year and it is not pretty when they do.

Then there is the concern of Kenley Jansen. While the Los Angeles Dodgers have a deep bullpen, the ninth inning is still going to go to Jansen, who set a career-high in blown saves this season with eight. It is impossible to feel comfortable anymore with Jansen on the mound.

The Nationals finished the year with the second-best run differential in the National League (behind the Dodgers) and had a better fWAR among their position players in the second half than the Dodgers.

Since the All-Star Break, the Nationals rank first in the NL in batting average, first in OPS, first in wRC+ and first in runs scored. They are also riding a nine-game winning streak.

After their heroic come-from-behind victory in the Wild Card game, the Nationals feel like a potential team of destiny while the Los Angeles Dodgers feel like a given to win the Pennant.

That never works out well for the team that feels like a given. If the Los Angeles Dodgers prove me wrong and win the National League Pennant then I will print this article and eat it. For now, we have to buckle up and hope that I am as far from the truth as possible.