Los Angeles Dodgers: The best way to use Clayton Kershaw in October

The Los Angeles Dodgers’ season came to a close early against the eventual World Series Champions in large part due to Clayton Kershaw.

The Los Angeles Dodgers‘ early exit in the National League Division Series feels a bit better after the Nationals went on to sweep the St. Louis Cardinals and defeat the Houston Astros in seven games to become World Series Champions.

However, it still hurts knowing that if Dave Roberts would have gone to the bullpen instead of blindly trusting Clayton Kershaw then the team could have been the one to bring down the powerhouse Astros.

This has been the story for most of Clayton Kershaw’s career—a complicated legacy that will forever be discussed and will be the perfect barometer of how much postseason success matters.

More from LA Sports Hub

In his prime, Kershaw was one of the most dominant pitchers of all-time, winning three Cy Young awards, an MVP and putting together seasons that all-time greats would have dreamed of. However, no matter the point in his career, Kershaw has always struggled in October, which has directly led to the Dodgers falling short seven years in a row.

Kershaw has a 9-11 record with a 4.43 ERA in the postseason. He has allowed 78 earned runs in 151 and one-third innings pitched in October. He allowed 87 earned runs in the 2013 and 2014 season combined in 434 and one-third innings pitched.

It’s more than overall numbers. Back-to-back bad performances against the St. Louis Cardinals in 2013 and 2014 stopped the Dodgers’ dream short. He was not great in the 2016 NLCS, when the Dodgers blew a 2-1 lead against the Chicago Cubs.

He was poor in the World Series last year, losing Game 1 definitively before getting shelled in Game 5 in what would be the final game of the year.

The worst of all, though, is Game 5 of the 2017 World Series. Kershaw blew not one, but two, three-run leads in a game that would have given the Dodgers a 3-2 lead with two chances to bring the title home in LA.

After yet another bad showing in 2019, in which he squandered the Dodgers’ game-long 3-1 lead in back-to-back pitches in the bottom of the eighth, the team is left at a crossroads.

Kershaw still has two more years under contract and is still a valuable asset. He finished 2019 with a 3.03 ERA and was an all-star. He was not prime Kershaw, but he was consistent. There is no reason any team should look to trade that caliber of pitcher away when pitching is such a premium in the MLB.

But the problem still exists in October. We cannot ignore it. We cannot blindly hope that it won’t happen again. That is what led Dave Roberts to make the decision he made and we cannot keep expecting a different outcome.

Kershaw should still be used in some capacity. But as we saw in the NLDS, he cannot even be used as a relief shutdown guy, a la Andrew Miller, as he is too home run prone, especially when he is just getting going.

The answer for Clayton Kershaw in October is a new baseball fad that has recently taken off: the opener. Clayton Kershaw needs an opener in October.

A lot of Kershaw’s struggles come at the beginning of his starts, even in the regular season. Kershaw had a 5.79 ERA in the first inning in 2019. He had a combined 2.41 ERA in the second through sixth inning.

He allowed three runs in the first two innings in Game 2 of the NLDS and allowed the second and third batter he faced to hit home runs in Game 5. With his home run rate up and his velocity down, it takes Kershaw some time to get going and facing the best hitters in the lineup while he tries to get going is hurting his numbers.

That is where the opener comes in handy. The Dodgers can call on someone that matches up well against the opposing teams, one of the several starters that the team is going to have in the bullpen in October.

Maybe that is Ross Stripling, maybe it is Julio Urias—depending on the game plan, it could even be someone like Joe Kelly or Pedro Baez.

Have them get through the heart of the order. If they get through a 1-2-3 first, let them face the four-hitter as well. That is when you bring in Kershaw, to face the 5-9 while he “gets going”.

Will it solve everything? Maybe not. But it does give Kershaw the opportunity to avoid the slow start that has plagued his October career but starting the game against the bottom half. If everything goes to plan, he can get an inning and a half or so worth of action before having to face the top half of the order for the first time.

And based on his trends, this will give Kershaw a much better chance of success against the top of the order.

This allows the Los Angeles Dodgers to keep using Kershaw while maximizing his success in October. All the Dodgers would need out of Kershaw would be six innings to take them into the eighth where the bullpen can take over.

He does not have to face the heart of the order more than twice, he does not have to risk a slow start against the top of the order.

Next. Why a Lindor trade will never happen. dark

This only works if the opener does his job and gets through the heart of the order in relatively short fashion. But based on Kershaw’s track record, the Los Angeles Dodgers should like their chances with the opener more in that situation than the veteran southpaw.

Home/Los Angeles Dodgers