NFL Draft 2018: Comparing Josh Rosen to Baker Mayfield

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Josh Rosen is more of a sure thing

Baker Mayifeld’s numbers were far superior to Rosen — but that doesn’t tell the whole story. His first year in college football was far different than the scoring threat that he developed into by his senior campaign.

Throwing for just 12 touchdowns and dumping off nine interceptions, Mayfield looked far from the athlete he is today when he first started. Surprisingly, if you compare that to Rosen’s relative start with UCLA and how consistent he’s been, the numbers actually points towards him.

While just spending three years in college instead of four, confidence was never lacking in his game and it showed on the stat sheet. As a freshman, Rosen threw the ball 487 times, completing just under 300 of those attempts.

He also had 11 interceptions and ended the year with an average rating of 134.3; the lowest of his respective collegiate career. On the other hand, the numbers also show how good he was as a freshman, as he posted a career best in raw QBR at 65.4 and had the longest scoring throw of his career at that time with a 70 yard bomb.

Rosen was also sacked 15 times that year, compared to just 11 in his sophomore season. He was one touchdown away from what would’ve been twice as many endzone trips as Mayfield with the same kind of atmosphere around them where expectations weren’t going to be lowered to make them comfortable.

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That should tell you that right out of the gate, we will see a better start to Rosen’s career regardless of where he lands in the draft order.

However, that’s not the most telling argument for why Rosen is the more consistent football player. For that answer, all you’ll have to do is look at his completion percentage and his touchdown numbers.

Rosen threw for a career-best 26 touchdowns in his junior year despite getting sacked a career-worst 15 times. Meanwhile, his completion percentage never dipped lower than a difference of three percent, posting his best numbers for that category this past season and finishing with a 62.3% completion percentage.

If he wasn’t sidelined with a serious and season-ending shoulder injury in his sophomore season with the Bruins, he would’ve scored around the same amount of touchdowns and was on pace for the same amount of interceptions.

So yeah, not as much razzle dazzle, but how have the majority of the past Heisman Trophy winners fared in the NFL that were quarterbacks? If your money was based on that, your gut — and your war room — would tell you to take Rosen.

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