While the Houston Rockets cruised past the Dallas Mavericks in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs in five games, the Los Angeles Clippers went right down to the final second of game seven with the San Antonio Spurs.
A miracle shot byChris PaulandMatt Barnes‘ defense — mixed with a little help from the clock operator — helped secure a trip to the second round for the Clippers.
In that second round, LA will face off with Houston in what is sure to be a high-speed, offensive shootout of a series.
Houston — playing without point guardPatrick Beverleyand power forwardDonatas Motiejunas— will get plenty of trouble from a few match-ups we’re likely to see throughout this series.
ShouldChris Paulfind himself being guarded byJason Terry, he should run with it. Terry is an aging three-point threat who was never too interested in defense throughout his career. Paul will be able to have his way with Terry on the perimeter, whether he’s creating mid-ranged jumpers for himself, or beating Terry off the dribble to create a defensive slide and an easy dish to an open shooter or big-man. Simply put:Chris PaulagainstJason Terryis a losing fight for Houston.
James Hardenwill most likely get his turn at guarding Paul as well. A much-improved defender from last season, Harden has a five-inch advantage on Paul, though he too likely can’t handle Paul’s uncanny mid-ranged shooting ability and basketball I.Q.
Another possible cover for Paul isPablo Prigioni, who is a better defender and floor-general than Terry. Look for him to see an increase in minutes should Harden and Terry fail to contain Paul.
Paul is a game-time decision for game one of the series due to a hamstring injury he sustained in the first quarter of Saturday’s game seven against San Antonio according to coachDoc Riversvia Mark Berman of Fox 26. This is clearly troubling news for the Clippers, but if he can go, look for him to cause immediate match-up issues for Houston.
Betsided
Yet another back-court issue for Houston:J.J. Redick. Redick can wreak havoc with his three-point shooting and off-ball movement should Harden have to guard Paul, giving a little more fuel to the notion of Prigioni playing bigger minutes.
If Redick’s shots are falling, his off-ball movement will play a crucial part in wearing down Houston’s thin back-court rotation.
BothBlake GriffinandDeAndre Jordanlook to be problematic for Houston as well.
WithDwight Howardlikely getting the assignment of guarding Griffin,Terrence Jonesdoesn’t seem the ideal candidate to lock-down a freak of athleticism like Jordan. Look forJosh Smithto be called on early and often for Houston to help out defensively.
Griffin’s mid-ranged shooting will also be key for LA. If the shot is working, Griffin can pick-and-pop rather than pick-and-roll, opening up both jump-shots for himself, as well as driving lanes to the rim. Drawing Howard away from the basket will be big for LA’s offense.
Defensively,Matt Barneswill be paramount. Though I’m no fan of Barnes’ inconsistent offense, his rough-and-tough defensive style might be just what the doctor ordered againstJames Harden. Keeping Harden out of the paint and off the free-throw line as much as possible will go a long way for the Clippers.
If Harden can be confined to a few less free-throws and a few more mid-ranged jump-shots, that is a win for LA, even if he’s hitting those jump-shots, the Clippers can ill-afford to have foul trouble given their nearly nonexistent bench.
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Harden will likely see a wealth of different defenders fromDoc Rivers— Similar to what the Clippers did againstKevin Durantin last season’s second round match-up with the Oklahoma City Thunder — Doc will look to go all-in to contain Harden. Look for the likes ofChris Paul,Austin Rivers, as well as Barnes to defend Harden throughout this series.
A few match-ups that might be problematic for the Clippers also exist.
We’ll start with the obvious one: James Harden.
Since I’ve already touched on this topic, I’ll keep this one brief.
Again, look for plenty of defensive looks for Harden as the Clippers will need a collective effort to keep him out of the paint, off the free-throw line, and in the mid-range.
If Harden is being denied the three-point shot, the at-the-rim finish, and the foul line, the Clippers will be in good shape.
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Josh Smith— while sporadic and oblivious to the fact that he’s a really bad three-point shooter — has been a key cog in the Rockets’ success this season since joining the team.
With his passing and defensive abilities,Blake GriffinandGlen Daviswill have their hands full in making sure that Smith is kept in check. That is; keep Josh Smith firing away from beyond the arc. He loves doing it. A lot.
If Smith is allowed time in the post, he can create plays for his teammates like most big-men cannot. Three-point attempts should be gift-wrapped and delivered right to his front door by the Clipper defense in order to keep him from becoming an X-factor of sorts for Houston.
If the Clippers can key in on these match-ups in this series, they should be in good shape. After a taxing first round series, LA would do well to try to control the pace, limiting Houston’s offensive tempo, while pushing their own.
Game one of this series is scheduled for 9 PM EST, 6 PM PST Monday night.
Next: 5 Reasons To Keep Watching Chris Paul & Co
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